Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaebf269299b910278f4e0c257470110262e44e1a150f3303d63df35db9ba2b07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 4,415$2,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.44 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 49c | 1,320$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 494$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.7 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 54c | 457$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.78 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 46c | 358.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.18 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 38c | 301.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 291$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.05 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 289$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 280.08$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 58c | 266.92$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 261$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 217$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 203.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 65c | 200.46$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 56c | 192$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 184.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 54c | 177.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 54c | 175$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 157.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 145.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 143.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 72c | 143.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 49c | 127.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 115$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 16c | 114.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 112.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 68c | 111.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 111.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed No | 54c | 102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…c617backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 50c | 89.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 82.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 74c | 81.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 77.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 65c | 76.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 40c | 75.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 74.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 41c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 67.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…8353backed Yes | 57c | 66.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 61c | 65.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 65.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 40c | 61.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 58.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 58.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed No | 41c | 58.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 49.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 52c | 49.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 48.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 38c | 47.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 34.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 33.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 66c | 32.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 67c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 63c | 29.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 62c | 29.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 29.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 45c | 27.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 27.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 27.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…529cbacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 24.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 72c | 23.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 54c | 23.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…99a0backed Yes | 53c | 22.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 57c | 21.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 59c | 21.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 21.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 64c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked Yes | 63c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 62c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.