Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. 100 Thieves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed7f6b952debae6948e82c56dd7c8310af5ecddebe24f033f827dc16d99a78e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuestof FlyQuest, 100 Thieves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea0f…23b1backed 100 Thieves | 8c | 12,635$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed 100 Thieves | 23c | 11,111$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555.53 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed FlyQuest | 77c | 10,326$7,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.97 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed 100 Thieves | 21c | 4,228$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.59 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed 100 Thieves | 0c | 3,960$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed 100 Thieves | 17c | 2,264$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.43 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed 100 Thieves | 8c | 2,200$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed FlyQuest | 79c | 2,021$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.4 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked FlyQuest | 77c | 1,789$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed 100 Thieves | 24c | 1,260$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 397 | 70.3%279 W · 118 L | +30.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked 100 Thieves | 21c | 1,200$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked FlyQuest | 78c | 1,120$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.43 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed 100 Thieves | 22c | 1,115$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.04 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked 100 Thieves | 16c | 1,035$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.95 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked 100 Thieves | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed 100 Thieves | 19c | 999.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed 100 Thieves | 16c | 795$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.25 | 417 | 43.9%183 W · 234 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked FlyQuest | 68c | 650.78$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.05 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed FlyQuest | 78c | 650$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 98 | 70.4%69 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked FlyQuest | 77c | 650$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 796 | 53.1%423 W · 373 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked 100 Thieves | 13c | 530$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 261 | 64.4%168 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed 100 Thieves | 13c | 525.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 236 | 24.6%58 W · 178 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed FlyQuest | 76c | 525$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked 100 Thieves | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed 100 Thieves | 31c | 465.67$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb4…7a49backed FlyQuest | 77c | 414.19$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.26 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed 100 Thieves | 24c | 410.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed FlyQuest | 80c | 378.33$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…b3ffbacked FlyQuest | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked FlyQuest | 76c | 301$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…a715backed FlyQuest | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 252 | 69.8%176 W · 76 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed FlyQuest | 75c | 280$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed FlyQuest | 71c | 257.7$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed 100 Thieves | 16c | 230.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed 100 Thieves | 34c | 149.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…6525backed 100 Thieves | 10c | 141.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed 100 Thieves | 27c | 124.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked 100 Thieves | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked 100 Thieves | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…4f20backed FlyQuest | 76c | 93.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked 100 Thieves | 28c | 85.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…564cbacked 100 Thieves | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…9718backed 100 Thieves | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…1d59backed FlyQuest | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef0…bdc2backed FlyQuest | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked 100 Thieves | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c0…8e1bbacked 100 Thieves | 25c | 64.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe15…aa32backed 100 Thieves | 25c | 64.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…2c7dbacked FlyQuest | 76c | 55.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed 100 Thieves | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 596 | 47.7%284 W · 312 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4b…41d5backed 100 Thieves | 25c | 44.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…d552backed FlyQuest | 51c | 33.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 386 | 24.4%94 W · 292 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed FlyQuest | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.