MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf7e99f0587aa7110be96efff0388a829ba3ecc420e2df8f71ae1af612f1448e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 9,315$6,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 6,819$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 2,382$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.81 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 2,344$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.75 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 1,004$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.66 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 432.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 421.06$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 19c | 276.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…6134backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 260.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 255$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 232$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 227.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 75c | 220.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 216.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Miami Marlins | 28c | 57.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 21c | 52.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 45.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f6…7d66backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 40.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 40.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 30.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…33c9backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 23.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.