MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a29ba091f89ceab76dbd6c28d8f2c547d6d7f768f4d1ce6208847bda0e17749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef1b…8697backed Yes | 51c | 11,172$5,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,440.04 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked No | 48c | 2,832$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.17 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 44c | 2,198$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.14 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked No | 50c | 712.19$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.09 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed No | 54c | 345.53$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 48c | 252.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked No | 54c | 204.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 52c | 157$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed No | 48c | 80.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 52c | 74.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 52c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cef…8634backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Yes | 50c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 50c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Yes | 48c | 24.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 55c | 22.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…d6c4backed No | 54c | 19.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.