MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1f5f4031eafd619bc553c23250b0071b46396c3fdf92197f3b8a6cd98ffd6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 15,286$9,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,815.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Under | 4c | 5,400$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +393.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 4c | 5,400$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 30c | 4,815$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,372.38 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 3c | 4,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 3c | 3,800$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…0fcabacked Under | 6c | 3,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 32c | 2,376$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.51 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed Under | 2c | 2,171$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked Under | 9c | 1,700$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Over | 42c | 1,617$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.94 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…4d03backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 44c | 1,468$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.92 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 1,468$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 1,405$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Under | 9c | 1,400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Under | 8c | 1,093$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 29c | 990$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.9 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Under | 3c | 652.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 12c | 650$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 63c | 568.46$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 30c | 435.69$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Over | 52c | 355$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 316$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.64 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 11c | 292$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 271.46$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 35c | 234$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 65c | 230.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 71c | 199.44$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 33c | 191.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 55c | 185$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 161.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 63c | 149.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 59c | 135.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 14c | 130.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 114.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 49c | 109.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 48c | 103.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 24c | 102.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 37c | 96.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 65c | 92.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 35c | 87.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 63c | 69.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 54c | 58.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Under | 59c | 49.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 38c | 45.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 44c | 39.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 39c | 34.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 58c | 34.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 75c | 32.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 77c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 23.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 72c | 14.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.