MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaea4bf47958d2a3c129a11bf0e1612428c6ee0f57249772388db9b8f0ab1747
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 6,326$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,175.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…c80cbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 4,006$2,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.75 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 3,927$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.17 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 2,864$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 1,869$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.27 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 1,677$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.54 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 1,583$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.7 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 1,529$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.96 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 1,400$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 1,288$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 1,256$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.89 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 32c | 1,223$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 965.62$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.97 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 952.83$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.87 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 697.14$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.71 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 564.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 540.72$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.47 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 525$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.75 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 440$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 420.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 380.59$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.83 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 372.44$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 257.58$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 203$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 199.72$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 193.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 191.84$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Miami Marlins | 20c | 170.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 138$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 129.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 120.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 89.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 57.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Atlanta Braves | 28c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 49.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 39.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 38.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 32.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 29.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…33c9backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 20.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 19.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.