MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d5b476be43917a6cbc3d51fe4bc02e22f14b87bda5930b35c59115d361ef90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 6,293$4,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,533.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 28c | 3,789$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 3,038$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 2,741$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.88 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 2,737$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 666$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.58 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 594$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Atlanta Braves | 28c | 468.9$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.56 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 410.61$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.06 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 382.49$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 323.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.28 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 242.74$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Atlanta Braves | 30c | 206.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 192.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.27 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 144.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 144.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Miami Marlins | 13c | 131.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 114.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 26c | 111.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Atlanta Braves | 22c | 108.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 91.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 85.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 84.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7067…38dbbacked Miami Marlins | 73c | 67.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 26c | 61.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…33c9backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 44.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Miami Marlins | 78c | 42.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 34.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Atlanta Braves | 30c | 33.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 21.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 17.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…c61ebacked Miami Marlins | 75c | 15.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.