MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa0b386a71b3429f06603141843ddee0cfdfd2cb2131fb951656cb98deabfa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 9,787$4,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,241.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Under | 29c | 5,177$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Under | 54c | 5,000$2,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,680 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 71c | 4,970$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Under | 53c | 4,832$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -14.4wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Under | 55c | 3,357$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.25 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 2,969$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.98 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Under | 54c | 2,604$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.17 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 1,869$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.33 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 1,478$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.05 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 1,423$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 49c | 1,140$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.4 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 1,102$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.24 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 29c | 826.12$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 51c | 687$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.37 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 20c | 657.92$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb0…34ecbacked Over | 46c | 647.83$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 395.96$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 53c | 358.54$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.02 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 45c | 331.76$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.47 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 311.76$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 58c | 253.62$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 18c | 228.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 25c | 218.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Over | 80c | 200.27$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 55c | 181.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 49c | 179.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 54c | 170$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Under | 55c | 156.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 156$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 39c | 142.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 54c | 135.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 23c | 115.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 47c | 82.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 67c | 81.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 47c | 79.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 70.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…f06bbacked Over | 50c | 59.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 71c | 59.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 57c | 54.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 62c | 49.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 60c | 41.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Under | 36c | 41.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…df52backed Over | 75c | 29.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 28.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Over | 47c | 26.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2395…5d64backed Over | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 71c | 22.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 62c | 21.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…33c9backed Over | 73c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.