MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e83eabdbc424bed319bfce03c049c977257d6a329a87cc6a64dcc609bd6124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 1,229$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 41c | 807.76$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.65 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 54c | 765.94$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.33 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 694.98$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 547$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.17 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 61c | 491.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.83 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 448.96$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.83 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 58c | 395.68$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.65 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 352.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…3207backed Under | 52c | 338.64$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 229.02$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 216.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 46c | 192.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 65c | 187.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.57 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 59c | 166.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 39c | 160.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 52c | 153.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 146.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 50c | 138.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 29c | 136$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 51c | 107.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 46c | 96.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 12c | 92.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 57c | 75.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 45c | 72.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 47c | 71.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 37c | 55.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 63c | 54.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f5…bd5cbacked Under | 52c | 52.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 51.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 46.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Under | 53c | 39.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 49c | 36.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 30.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 52c | 28.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 28.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 42c | 28.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 47c | 24.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Under | 59c | 21.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 20.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Under | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked Under | 61c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.