MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d8d33a51a0acfd4439b6f7f377c49d8072b7aa6b15420f4a90c491efdbe232a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 5,903$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 44c | 4,668$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.19 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 2,845$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 57c | 1,420$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.6 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 73c | 1,233$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.88 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 1,194$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.81 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 1,165$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 77c | 1,011$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.59 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 841.5$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 751.53$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 434.15$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 24c | 406.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 53c | 386.98$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.31 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 45c | 291.33$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 63c | 274.78$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.11 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 37c | 269.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.96 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 257.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 234$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 150.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 70c | 140.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 124$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb75a…67c4backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 49c | 98.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 92.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 44c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 85.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 31c | 79.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 41c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 48c | 63.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 33c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…ed46backed Over | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…cf33backed Over | 48c | 57.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Over | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 21c | 55.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 51c | 53.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 53c | 52.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Over | 44c | 46.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 38c | 46.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 37c | 45.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 39c | 42.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 62c | 40.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 38c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 53c | 35.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 51c | 32.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 40c | 30.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 74c | 22.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 58c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 60c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.