MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5095d06852b3b2cc471dac3fd0530ca51979ba32a9f170754d357d07903b2b10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 2,508$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 1,909$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.84 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 1,199$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.84 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 1,148$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 994.27$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.28 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 867.19$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.19 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 482$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.26 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 321.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 73c | 315.1$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 272.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 259.75$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 216.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked Atlanta Braves | 76c | 204.55$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 154.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 111$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 101$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 91.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Miami Marlins | 30c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Atlanta Braves | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 36.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 34.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 28.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…bfe2backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 27.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…f02fbacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.