Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafeb9f52ae2eee07a50388e96a4e64b0da4110d7dc3a8cda2b25137fbb1325c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 46c | 541.89$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.55 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 37c | 522.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.86 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 69c | 442.96$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 289.29$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.97 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 46c | 269.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.69 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 252.76$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 195.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 52c | 187.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 58c | 160.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 65c | 154.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 146$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 127$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 41c | 125.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 120$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 46c | 109.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 22c | 98.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 18c | 96.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 18c | 94.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 52c | 94.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 89.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 36c | 86.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 84.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 81.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…3531backed Yes | 52c | 77.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 76.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 44c | 73.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 67.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed No | 50c | 65.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 65.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 40c | 64.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 61.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 63c | 61.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 27c | 61.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 57c | 58.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 57.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 37c | 56.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 46.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 23c | 46.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 45.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 53c | 45.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 67c | 44.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 44.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 64c | 41.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes | 35c | 41.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed No | 64c | 38.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb512…9a16backed Yes | 51c | 38.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 38.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…7fbebacked Yes | 54c | 37.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 41c | 33.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…60bbbacked Yes | 63c | 30.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 58c | 29.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 29.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 26.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 52c | 25.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 54c | 24.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 45c | 23.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef8c…a9a5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.