Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c5bfa5809a369da28a78ad8b0fd522627bc1dbfb9d9fbc2f196b74e39c37828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f84…7fbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,024$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 53c | 887.29$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.3 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 42c | 800$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.79 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 50c | 649.46$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.51 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 430$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.82 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 42c | 396.8$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.34 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 393.1$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.53 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 40c | 369.44$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.42 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…580bbacked Yes | 44c | 344.35$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 40c | 342.3$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 37c | 318.1$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 50c | 229.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 50c | 217.61$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 43c | 215.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 196.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 59c | 175.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 48c | 173.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 55c | 166.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 47c | 163.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 66c | 151.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 69c | 148.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 67c | 109.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 51c | 108.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 57c | 108$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 41c | 104.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 68c | 103.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 101.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 40c | 95.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 199 | 20.6%41 W · 158 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 68c | 87.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 85.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 29c | 78.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 76.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 69c | 72.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed No | 60c | 66.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 62.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 62.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 61.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 39c | 60.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 67c | 59.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 55c | 58.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 57.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 36c | 56.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 52.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 54c | 52.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…b4dfbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba4…0e0dbacked Yes | 20c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 56c | 47.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 63c | 45.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 45.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 30c | 44.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 60c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 49c | 43.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 42.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 47c | 42.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 37c | 38.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…6b23backed No | 68c | 37.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 33c | 36.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 44c | 34.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 40c | 34.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 33.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…3531backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3438…67cdbacked Yes | 33c | 32.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…730cbacked No | 56c | 32.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…f221backed Yes | 41c | 31.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…6c65backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 54c | 29.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 66c | 25.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…40a7backed No | 68c | 24.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 24.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 66c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 22.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 22.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…e6d4backed No | 63c | 21.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…6747backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.