TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$387,185
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$438,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,185 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6918…782bbacked Karmine Corp31c34,648$10,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,591.111,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Karmine Corp33c30,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,90014448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Karmine Corp12c23,191$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,827.8745041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed G2 Esports67c18,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.9843442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed G2 Esports68c15,791$10,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,040.1291854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c73…4c78backed Karmine Corp4c12,698$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+272.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Karmine Corp6c12,624$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.2238624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Karmine Corp33c11,068$3,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,681.911,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…70afbacked Karmine Corp17c9,189$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Karmine Corp20c7,583$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.9832234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Karmine Corp8c6,440$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.31,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked G2 Esports67c6,161$4,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.0512664.3%81 W · 45 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Karmine Corp20c6,024$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.082,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Karmine Corp7c5,576$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.742,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked G2 Esports67c5,244$3,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.935339.6%21 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked G2 Esports69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5509545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed G2 Esports69c4,857$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.097758.4%45 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked G2 Esports67c4,681$3,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.270456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed G2 Esports80c4,607$3,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.1539859.8%238 W · 160 L+31.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe361…5ff5backed G2 Esports68c3,885$2,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.591471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Karmine Corp32c3,781$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.671,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Karmine Corp32c3,757$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.222,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Karmine Corp13c3,343$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.1245937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14d4…c4bfbacked G2 Esports66c3,333$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.222050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f25…51f3backed Karmine Corp30c3,249$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.6115357.5%88 W · 65 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed G2 Esports68c3,231$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.889848%47 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Karmine Corp33c3,030$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022757.3%130 W · 97 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3b…6598backed Karmine Corp18c3,013$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.29336.1%2 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed G2 Esports66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02015046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked Karmine Corp14c3,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42014327.3%39 W · 104 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2037…473dbacked G2 Esports69c2,963$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.531855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked G2 Esports68c2,941$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.1816047.5%76 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3555…ba40backed G2 Esports69c2,899$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.551163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed G2 Esports67c2,712$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.9818467.9%125 W · 59 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Karmine Corp4c2,667$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11047453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Karmine Corp19c2,602$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.131,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0be…caa2backed G2 Esports70c2,530$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff93…1239backed G2 Esports69c2,366$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.462040%8 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked G2 Esports68c2,299$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.637754.5%42 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2759…68f5backed Karmine Corp17c2,287$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked G2 Esports68c2,284$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.7959248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed G2 Esports68c2,254$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.236363.5%40 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Karmine Corp34c2,235$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76034651.2%177 W · 169 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e3…c540backed G2 Esports75c2,195$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.2115146.4%70 W · 81 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked G2 Esports71c2,171$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.6559558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed G2 Esports67c2,100$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69325065.6%164 W · 86 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked G2 Esports65c2,050$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.844550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc352…a152backed G2 Esports68c2,031$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.942454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed G2 Esports71c2,005$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.5396149.9%480 W · 481 L+4.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a52…c0e8backed Karmine Corp3c2,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1735516.3%58 W · 297 L-25.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Karmine Corp27c1,850$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5042,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed G2 Esports66c1,700$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.341,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Karmine Corp26c1,649$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.0875630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed G2 Esports69c1,600$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4967753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b9…da59backed G2 Esports68c1,591$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Karmine Corp3c1,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.521051.4%108 W · 102 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1144…b7b5backed Karmine Corp2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306719.4%13 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked G2 Esports68c1,498$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31cb…a34bbacked G2 Esports67c1,455$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.483050%15 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked G2 Esports67c1,432$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.195448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Karmine Corp34c1,350$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.0332145.5%146 W · 175 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Karmine Corp31c1,301$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40328253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x168c…53b0backed G2 Esports70c1,275$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.46785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+51.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x874e…ab32backed G2 Esports70c1,207$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.15560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb92a…f51cbacked G2 Esports69c1,082$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.732347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed G2 Esports70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30037647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ee…7efdbacked G2 Esports70c1,000$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked G2 Esports69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31040145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed G2 Esports68c999.99$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32066059.8%395 W · 265 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa500…39d1backed Karmine Corp32c999.99$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32012548.8%61 W · 64 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed G2 Esports66c999.98$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9947455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked G2 Esports80c999.19$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8432457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked G2 Esports68c899.98$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.9963646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Karmine Corp22c892.05$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.292,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x316b…5d97backed G2 Esports70c857.18$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd515…14febacked G2 Esports76c850$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe623…9800backed Karmine Corp6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014335%50 W · 93 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed G2 Esports67c800$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2648558.8%50 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…c848backed Karmine Corp33c800$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2645030%15 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ff…3506backed Karmine Corp33c757.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25033738%128 W · 209 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed G2 Esports80c743.65$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.911840.7%48 W · 70 L-11.3wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Karmine Corp34c740$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.648143.2%208 W · 273 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked G2 Esports68c735.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2930160.8%183 W · 118 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Karmine Corp20c722.88$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Karmine Corp27c710$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.660053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7772…0e56backed Karmine Corp30c656.56$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.422429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-38.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed G2 Esports79c651.94$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.261,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc104…f24fbacked Karmine Corp34c650$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2214040%16 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked G2 Esports69c650$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.511938.7%46 W · 73 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b8a…76a2backed Karmine Corp30c646.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1944348.8%21 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x369f…abb5backed G2 Esports69c633$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.233956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed G2 Esports66c629.54$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.041,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…40b0backed G2 Esports78c624.25$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.0717060.6%103 W · 67 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed G2 Esports68c617.64$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.643933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-27.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb28a…56e0backed Karmine Corp33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…3668backed Karmine Corp34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20411246.4%52 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Karmine Corp32c593.95$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.071,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed G2 Esports69c575$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.258549.4%42 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Karmine Corp35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2da2…fa9fbacked Karmine Corp3c563.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.081741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.