TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof KRÜ Esports, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$154,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,106 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed G2 Esports68c15,482$10,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,944.0752155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked KRÜ Esports33c15,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.9578162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed KRÜ Esports31c10,474$3,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,266.7933942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed KRÜ Esports23c10,034$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.048444%37 W · 47 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed KRÜ Esports18c7,318$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.2193049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked G2 Esports62c7,132$4,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.2213651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked G2 Esports66c5,991$3,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.0228955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed G2 Esports67c5,699$3,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.2326050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c49…03d0backed G2 Esports67c4,072$2,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.761233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-48.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed KRÜ Esports34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02028548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed KRÜ Esports31c2,250$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.4941734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked KRÜ Esports33c2,162$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.3294361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked KRÜ Esports17c2,136$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.2968949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked KRÜ Esports36c2,027$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.588950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xece6…c4bfbacked G2 Esports67c1,934$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed KRÜ Esports31c1,919$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.2542540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked G2 Esports68c1,895$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.433153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed KRÜ Esports33c1,800$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59433348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked KRÜ Esports37c1,651$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.225336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked G2 Esports66c1,592$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.355358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked KRÜ Esports17c1,542$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0635142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed G2 Esports67c1,515$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.9511255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked G2 Esports67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.5411458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked KRÜ Esports28c1,437$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.0925444.9%114 W · 140 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed KRÜ Esports30c1,362$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.6651749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked KRÜ Esports26c1,249$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9668458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed KRÜ Esports24c1,249$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.0253159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed KRÜ Esports34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40023151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked KRÜ Esports21c1,167$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.661,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed KRÜ Esports33c1,100$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3635156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed G2 Esports69c1,072$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.396256.5%35 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed G2 Esports65c1,002$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.756357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed KRÜ Esports33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33028541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed G2 Esports69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31015553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed KRÜ Esports14c999.96$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.991118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid+18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed KRÜ Esports18c993.87$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17554342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e5…8ce3backed KRÜ Esports31c969.95$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.494341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed G2 Esports75c957.49$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.4432462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9de9…ee25backed KRÜ Esports5c940$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ed…d916backed G2 Esports67c931$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked KRÜ Esports21c926.33$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.071,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0650…865cbacked G2 Esports67c913$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.29650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked KRÜ Esports25c880.21$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7121136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed KRÜ Esports26c831.09$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.6426932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe361…5ff5backed KRÜ Esports33c828.26$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.33742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked G2 Esports70c793.45$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.0453355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked KRÜ Esports21c792.81$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.531,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked KRÜ Esports34c750$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25531153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed G2 Esports62c748.57$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.556048.3%29 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked KRÜ Esports27c723.93$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4736138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked KRÜ Esports34c720.59$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24529733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…635cbacked KRÜ Esports36c701.87$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506045%27 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed KRÜ Esports15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010225.5%26 W · 76 L-10.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked G2 Esports70c645$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.6510951.4%56 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed KRÜ Esports21c639.34$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4627947.7%133 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9227…e497backed KRÜ Esports24c627.83$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3072…4ca9backed G2 Esports69c624.48$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.591566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked KRÜ Esports40c620$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.83253.1%17 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+57.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed KRÜ Esports20c603.68$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3377929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed KRÜ Esports39c597.39$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0824250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed KRÜ Esports22c595.44$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.118444.6%82 W · 102 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b9…da59backed KRÜ Esports33c571.19$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.49520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked KRÜ Esports34c561.76$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19115343.8%67 W · 86 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed KRÜ Esports32c538.7$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3819337.8%73 W · 120 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5837…9a00backed KRÜ Esports34c529.41$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18016050.6%81 W · 79 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…e019backed G2 Esports67c520$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.63357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked G2 Esports69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15524457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed KRÜ Esports33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16522047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed KRÜ Esports31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1555846.6%27 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d8…e2e8backed KRÜ Esports15c481.73$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.265151%26 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b43…c5cbbacked G2 Esports67c463$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked KRÜ Esports22c461.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked KRÜ Esports24c461.05$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.560154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4ab…13a1backed G2 Esports67c458$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.14728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-58.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed KRÜ Esports31c442.95$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8435331.2%110 W · 243 L-29.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3013…279bbacked KRÜ Esports22c432.58$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0410552.4%55 W · 50 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed KRÜ Esports21c422.22$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9042840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked KRÜ Esports11c402$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.751,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed KRÜ Esports15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+38.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef85…2c38backed G2 Esports75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-55.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9106…613bbacked KRÜ Esports34c371.56$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.084062.5%25 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked G2 Esports57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8814452.1%75 W · 69 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked KRÜ Esports32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009148.4%44 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed G2 Esports61c300.8$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.235349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed G2 Esports67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9919656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked G2 Esports60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x369f…abb5backed G2 Esports67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick53cpaid-67.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed KRÜ Esports38c284$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5815931.4%50 W · 109 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked KRÜ Esports38c263.44$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.321,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed G2 Esports69c260.87$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8733346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked KRÜ Esports21c251.32$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5565559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed G2 Esports62c251.11$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.111338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6f0…7b5bbacked G2 Esports61c249.96$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.481747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed KRÜ Esports37c245.9$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3645250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed G2 Esports75c242.02$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.976045%27 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked KRÜ Esports20c241.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.830835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked KRÜ Esports15c205.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021144.1%93 W · 118 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed KRÜ Esports15c205$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7523447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed KRÜ Esports5c199.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.178066.3%53 W · 27 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8c2…ac84backed KRÜ Esports29c181.16$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.