Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb18c08ccd66cec04022d9a9cd5c3e41314bb4216c5b89dc6a9438a7cdab72f41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 46c | 1,798$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.96 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 583.98$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 465.82$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 289.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 255$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 193.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 189.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 44c | 180.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 127.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 113$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 107.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 106.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 52c | 95.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 94.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 90.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 85.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 83.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 78.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 78.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 72.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 61.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 58c | 58.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 57.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 55c | 51.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 41c | 50.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 50c | 49.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 79c | 45.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 23c | 45.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 36.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 50c | 33.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 43c | 33.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 46c | 32.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 32.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 48c | 31.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…e1b5backed No | 59c | 29.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 55c | 26.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 44c | 26.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 26.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 63c | 25.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 24.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 46c | 24.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…3963backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 66c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.