Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb23dc1df833b3121272b9abfaaa6fc3fcb78ad32880c51da26cbcfd7eae17052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 64c | 638.89$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 46c | 542.75$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.75 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 39c | 507.03$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.6 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 457.53$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked Yes | 41c | 338$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 38c | 305.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 38c | 283.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.88 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 48c | 242.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 60c | 201.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed No | 59c | 199.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 199.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked No | 50c | 198.53$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 36c | 142.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 65c | 121.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 46c | 115.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 111.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 54c | 101.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 18c | 99.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 55c | 92.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 92.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed No | 63c | 87.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 37c | 81.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 76.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 64c | 76.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 54c | 61.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 53c | 58.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 55.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 66c | 53.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 50.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 48c | 50.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 44.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 43.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 39.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 46c | 36.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…efdfbacked Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 53c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 33.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…d603backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 18.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…fd46backed No | 66c | 16.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 16?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.