TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 124.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,240 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f4a…cf21backed Under51c265.2$135 inWon+$129.951145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over48c200$96 inLost-$9637755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ec…2258backed Under52c200$104 inWon+$96650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over56c90.93$51 inLost-$50.9221642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x851e…d153backed Over49c68.41$34 inLost-$33.52944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a36…428fbacked Under53c67.85$36 inWon+$31.945836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e1…d473backed Over49c66.32$32 inLost-$32.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb888…f103backed Over49c65.91$32 inLost-$32.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8790…0795backed Over49c64.56$32 inLost-$31.631361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed Under50c52.66$26 inWon+$26.3310066%66 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94e5…52bebacked Over47c36.6$17 inLost-$17.175641.1%23 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c30.75$15 inWon+$15.755,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under44c27.68$12 inWon+$15.52,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Over47c25.53$12 inLost-$121,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.