TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,392 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea60…e977backed Yes55c400$220 inLost-$2209159.3%54 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No46c367.28$169 inWon+$198.462,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked No45c327.28$147 inWon+$18047354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…5976backed Yes54c105.65$57 inLost-$57.119458.5%55 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes29c100$29 inLost-$2940053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Yes53c94.68$50 inLost-$5037352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes54c55.56$30 inLost-$3021642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ec…2258backed No71c45.12$32 inWon+$13.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No46c30.65$14 inWon+$16.431,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x069c…a2f1backed Yes53c28.17$15 inLost-$151872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cc9…185bbacked Yes55c27.27$15 inLost-$1529247.9%140 W · 152 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No47c21.28$10 inWon+$11.2897049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.