NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x270c621a34ff0b66bcd3ecab42337499b854745143c080587351204921199c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Lakers, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Pelicans | 57c | 13,491$7,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,797.66 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -15.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 44c | 8,665$3,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,812.44 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Lakers | 26c | 2,218$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.51 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Pelicans | 61c | 1,807$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.69 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 41c | 1,695$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…522fbacked Pelicans | 59c | 1,186$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.44 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…b86ebacked Pelicans | 57c | 1,041$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.18 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Lakers | 45c | 955.31$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Pelicans | 58c | 940.88$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.17 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 39c | 875.23$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Lakers | 43c | 716$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.06 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Lakers | 40c | 655.94$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.91 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lakers | 44c | 518.51$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.62 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Lakers | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Pelicans | 57c | 431.58$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.58 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pelicans | 60c | 428.55$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.84 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans | 57c | 350.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.44 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Lakers | 39c | 334.38$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.06 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Lakers | 43c | 328.41$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Lakers | 41c | 324.34$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.07 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…8e2ebacked Lakers | 47c | 310.49$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lakers | 39c | 289.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…6d2abacked Lakers | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers | 39c | 222.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lakers | 42c | 217.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Lakers | 37c | 183.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Pelicans | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Lakers | 42c | 167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Pelicans | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Pelicans | 75c | 149$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -15.6wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Pelicans | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Pelicans | 60c | 116.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…5578backed Pelicans | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Pelicans | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Pelicans | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Lakers | 47c | 99.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Lakers | 42c | 99.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Lakers | 16c | 95.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lakers | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Pelicans | 57c | 87.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pelicans | 65c | 87.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Lakers | 36c | 87.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Pelicans | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Lakers | 42c | 83.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Pelicans | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Lakers | 43c | 81.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Pelicans | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pelicans | 59c | 79.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lakers | 32c | 74.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lakers | 40c | 66.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Lakers | 42c | 62.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…0a90backed Pelicans | 66c | 60.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c3…9522backed Pelicans | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…0c89backed Lakers | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…da0cbacked Lakers | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Pelicans | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…1139backed Lakers | 41c | 48.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Pelicans | 67c | 41.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pelicans | 59c | 36.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Pelicans | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…831abacked Pelicans | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Pelicans | 61c | 29.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Lakers | 45c | 28.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pelicans | 57c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pelicans | 59c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Lakers | 43c | 23.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pelicans | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Pelicans | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Pelicans | 69c | 16.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Pelicans | 69c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 178 | 44.4%79 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. LakersLakers won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 242.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 243.5Under won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.