TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,687 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4488…e319backed Over53c2,144$1,136 inLost-$1,136.3269149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Over52c1,288$670 inLost-$669.5724151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under48c1,035$497 inWon+$538.21,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over54c816.99$438 inLost-$438.334,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under47c795.02$374 inWon+$421.3671449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under46c795$366 inWon+$429.395651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Over54c602.65$325 inLost-$325.4326839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under40c496.59$200 inWon+$296.654539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Over61c490$299 inLost-$298.920846.6%97 W · 111 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under46c387.95$178 inWon+$209.589,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c364.78$174 inWon+$191.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over60c361$217 inLost-$216.66,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under47c319.15$150 inWon+$169.157153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over53c266.51$141 inLost-$141.252,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under39c243.8$96 inWon+$147.953,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Under44c199.99$88 inWon+$111.9926048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef49…1207backed Over54c174.44$95 inLost-$953046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under44c152.8$67 inWon+$86.194,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over59c135.59$80 inLost-$8046346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Under47c100$47 inWon+$5324428.7%70 W · 174 L-22.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Over59c95.52$56 inLost-$56.3616338.7%63 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under41c95.52$39 inWon+$56.363,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Under47c74.47$35 inWon+$39.4727050%135 W · 135 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under46c72.71$33 inWon+$39.261,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Under49c61.22$30 inWon+$31.2229351.9%152 W · 141 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Under47c60$28 inWon+$31.837549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under45c49.99$22 inWon+$27.4966143.4%287 W · 374 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under46c37$17 inWon+$19.9846447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed Over55c36.64$20 inLost-$20.155448.1%26 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under46c36$16 inWon+$19.5545452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over53c32$17 inLost-$17.129645.6%135 W · 161 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d75…12a6backed Under47c31.8$15 inWon+$16.859258.7%54 W · 38 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under46c25.06$12 inWon+$13.533,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac9…4092backed Under47c23.83$11 inWon+$12.6320554.6%112 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Over57c18.06$10 inLost-$10.293666.7%24 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.