NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9832aa179cef339d39d47a3d9c990ae051fc1bc100553c57245cbcec0b9ace4f

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pelicansof Lakers, Pelicans
Resolved: Mar 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,686 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers	46c	10,123$4,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,655.87	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Pelicans	54c	10,000$5,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,599.97	153	49%75 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Pelicans	53c	6,887$3,650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,237.03	112	52.7%59 W · 53 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Pelicans	54c	5,846$3,182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,663.62	1,759	61.7%1,085 W · 674 L	+127.5wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Lakers	47c	5,000$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,350	127	45.7%58 W · 69 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers	45c	2,410$1,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,074.35	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Lakers	47c	2,304$1,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,074.58	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93e7…cc0cbacked Pelicans	56c	2,000$1,119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$881.4	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Lakers	45c	1,820$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819	249	42.2%105 W · 144 L	-9.6wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Pelicans	55c	1,613$887 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$725.99	158	49.4%78 W · 80 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers	44c	1,221$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.45	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Pelicans	55c	1,111$611 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Pelicans	56c	1,072$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.67	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans	54c	1,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers	44c	943.47$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Lakers	46c	819.57$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377	293	47.4%139 W · 154 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers	45c	724.94$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.22	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc070…203abacked Pelicans	54c	700$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322	98	43.9%43 W · 55 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Lakers	45c	600$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	493	45.2%223 W · 270 L	-14.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Pelicans	55c	575$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.62	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xea60…e977backed Pelicans	57c	481.19$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.18	91	59.3%54 W · 37 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans	47c	465.85$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.69	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Lakers	45c	432.05$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.26	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Pelicans	55c	400$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers	46c	388.1$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.53	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lakers	46c	367.68$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.13	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Lakers	44c	337.1$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.32	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Lakers	42c	311.09$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.49	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Lakers	46c	305.8$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.81	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Lakers	46c	300$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Pelicans	55c	271$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.95	268	39.2%105 W · 163 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac8…9e67backed Pelicans	55c	260$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117	185	43.2%80 W · 105 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lakers	45c	256.34$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.05	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Lakers	47c	198$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.07	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Lakers	44c	149$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.56	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Pelicans	56c	146.19$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.32	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Pelicans	56c	132$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.08	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Lakers	46c	128$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.88	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77d8…849abacked Pelicans	52c	120.26$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.26	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Pelicans	55c	109.09$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.09	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3af5…caebbacked Lakers	46c	105.72$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.08	118	50%59 W · 59 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Lakers	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Lakers	47c	93.92$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.73	628	44.9%282 W · 346 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc596…2428backed Pelicans	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Lakers	46c	88.42$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.67	227	46.3%105 W · 122 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6912…2aabbacked Pelicans	55c	81.82$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.82	77	44.2%34 W · 43 L	-5.8wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Pelicans	54c	74.07$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.07	257	52.5%135 W · 122 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3502…7057backed Pelicans	54c	74.07$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.07	182	56.6%103 W · 79 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Pelicans	55c	72.72$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	920	58%534 W · 386 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Lakers	45c	70.06$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.53	203	55.2%112 W · 91 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Pelicans	56c	65$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.6	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Pelicans	54c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Pelicans	54c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Pelicans	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pelicans	58c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a50…09f4backed Pelicans	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	71	52.1%37 W · 34 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b6f…8441backed Lakers	47c	47.09$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Pelicans	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	128	57.8%74 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Lakers	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	363	50.1%182 W · 181 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Lakers	47c	42.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	293	51.9%152 W · 141 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1fe8…c7a6backed Pelicans	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd27…4721backed Pelicans	57c	38.6$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.6	104	57.7%60 W · 44 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Lakers	46c	37.56$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lakers	44c	36.71$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.26	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…4654backed Lakers	46c	33.87$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Pelicans	56c	28.57$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.57	548	54.2%297 W · 251 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers	45c	28.54$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Lakers	43c	23$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Lakers	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	464	47.8%222 W · 242 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Lakers	47c	21.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Pelicans	55c	21.03$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.46	646	51.7%334 W · 312 L	-14.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Pelicans	57c	17.85$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.68	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Lakers (-9.5)this page
1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Pelicans won
Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5No won
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5No won
Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Pelicans vs. LakersLakers won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 242.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 243.5Under won
Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 8.5No won
Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Pelicans won
Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 21.5No won
Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Zion Williamson: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Lakers (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event