NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3dc46ea37a8a7708a14f56999f03028dceac7f8902a5da340ffe9634f18273b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Magic, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,609 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6734…2e18backed Cavaliers | 77c | 3,346$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.34 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…f773backed Magic | 28c | 1,784$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Magic | 23c | 1,463$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.38 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Magic | 23c | 917.89$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.12 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…1715backed Magic | 8c | 712.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Magic | 38c | 457.87$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Magic | 23c | 397.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Magic | 24c | 382.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Magic | 30c | 336.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers | 70c | 336.56$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Magic | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cavaliers | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Magic | 24c | 223.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked Cavaliers | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Magic | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…efe5backed Magic | 42c | 169.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…4b11backed Magic | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…6cecbacked Magic | 49c | 137.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…67f7backed Magic | 39c | 129.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 215 | 57.7%124 W · 91 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Magic | 15c | 112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Magic | 43c | 109.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Magic | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Magic | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Magic | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Magic | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…9429backed Magic | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Magic | 35c | 88.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cavaliers | 72c | 87.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Magic | 33c | 80.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 378 | 45%170 W · 208 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…d51cbacked Cavaliers | 76c | 68.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Magic | 24c | 60.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Cavaliers | 76c | 56.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Magic | 59c | 51.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Cavaliers | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…c413backed Magic | 34c | 49.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657b…9ba4backed Cavaliers | 75c | 43.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers | 71c | 28.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…8efcbacked Magic | 35c | 28.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Magic | 39c | 26.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Magic won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Goga Bitadze: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Magic vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Max Strus: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.