NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x932a3045e717856e110d6e9adff9f9d7588aab6bfdcde63e54f8f3c3b742a73e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Cavaliers, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,101 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Magic | 55c | 3,807$2,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.15 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 3,680$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.2 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…2653backed Cavaliers | 46c | 3,445$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 162 | 49.4%80 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Magic | 65c | 2,602$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.08 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7c…163abacked Magic | 54c | 2,226$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8065…4950backed Magic | 54c | 2,218$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Magic | 53c | 1,746$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.81 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cavaliers | 50c | 1,342$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.66 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers | 41c | 938.09$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.11 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 54c | 922.23$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.23 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 59c | 838.48$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Magic | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Magic | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cavaliers | 45c | 430.48$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.21 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Cavaliers | 29c | 394.84$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Cavaliers | 36c | 381.79$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers | 36c | 351.48$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Cavaliers | 46c | 350.21$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Magic | 74c | 333$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Magic | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…6e63backed Magic | 80c | 299.35$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic | 63c | 268.52$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Cavaliers | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ec…f7dabacked Magic | 55c | 193.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Magic | 65c | 188.32$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Magic | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers | 45c | 183.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Cavaliers | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Magic | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Magic | 55c | 123.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Cavaliers | 34c | 118.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Magic | 67c | 107.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8585…eef1backed Cavaliers | 38c | 104.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cavaliers | 36c | 102.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Cavaliers | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 387 | 40.3%156 W · 231 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Magic | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Magic | 65c | 91.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Magic | 60c | 84.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 46c | 78.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Magic | 70c | 74.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Magic | 60c | 67.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Magic | 68c | 58.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Magic | 55c | 55.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Magic | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4694…b6b2backed Magic | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 52.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Magic | 64c | 51.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 155 | 47.1%73 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…12debacked Cavaliers | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…7a96backed Magic | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Magic | 56c | 47.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Magic | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Magic | 65c | 45.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Magic | 54c | 43.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Magic | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Magic | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…5cecbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 39.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Magic | 63c | 39.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…78aebacked Cavaliers | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…b8b2backed Magic | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Cavaliers | 46c | 34.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 33.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked Cavaliers | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…683bbacked Magic | 61c | 32.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Cavaliers | 46c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 405 | 48.6%197 W · 208 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Magic | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 25.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…ea73backed Magic | 64c | 25.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Magic | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Cavaliers | 45c | 23.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic | 54c | 22.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b6…0da7backed Magic | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…b78ebacked Magic | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Magic | 65c | 19.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Magic won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Goga Bitadze: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Magic vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Max Strus: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.