NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcb2bc2cf3663dc31467d5be77ba1a239f9d96e9590820ab43dbb163625f1123
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,520 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Under | 56c | 3,312$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.79 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 3c | 2,794$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 78c | 2,454$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.16 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 2,259$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.43 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 48c | 2,088$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.02 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 1,494$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.14 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 1,482$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.93 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 1,352$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.41 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 22c | 1,213$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.73 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 1,024$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 988.95$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.48 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 20c | 609.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 494.22$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.26 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa380…55e3backed Under | 56c | 375.76$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 15c | 337.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 48c | 292$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 51c | 255.89$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 18c | 238.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…5e69backed Under | 25c | 228$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 66c | 211.63$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Under | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 61c | 205.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 56c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f79…f7f7backed Over | 46c | 196.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 14c | 177.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 107 | 18.7%20 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 45c | 166.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Under | 51c | 164.71$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 56c | 157.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 54c | 132.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…1480backed Over | 47c | 119.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 52c | 116.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 53c | 99.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 47c | 84.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 18c | 66.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 47c | 64.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 51c | 47.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…bfa6backed Over | 72c | 47.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 45.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 45c | 40.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88a…1c9ebacked Over | 49c | 31.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Over | 57c | 31.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 46c | 30.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 30.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…8efcbacked Under | 53c | 24.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 54c | 22.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Magic won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Goga Bitadze: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Magic vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Max Strus: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.