NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22e1d916714bb2f472fd9c3b5d8d7e222e04bea44c22e39cdc695bca46232b91

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,794 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under	50c	33,644$16,822 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,822.14	155	45.8%71 W · 84 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over	50c	30,000$15,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,000	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over	50c	8,034$4,017 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,017	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	50c	5,294$2,645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,645.29	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661f…098abacked Under	52c	3,909$2,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,031.51	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	49c	2,209$1,088 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,121.46	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Over	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	159	52.8%84 W · 75 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Over	50c	1,400$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$700	102	51%52 W · 50 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over	48c	1,080$521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$559.1	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	51c	995.99$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.63	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over	52c	800$416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384	870	49.3%429 W · 441 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed Under	50c	700.1$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	108	49.1%53 W · 55 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under	49c	678.22$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.65	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Under	16c	583$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.5	208	38%79 W · 129 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fa…f6dfbacked Under	50c	551.14$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.57	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	409	47.7%195 W · 214 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	50c	422.7$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.35	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	142	51.4%73 W · 69 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	50c	416.05$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.03	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Over	49c	378.15$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.58	474	36.7%174 W · 300 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed Over	48c	370.28$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.55	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	23c	337.74$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.6	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Over	50c	318$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159	290	55.5%161 W · 129 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under	50c	318$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Over	60c	300$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	161	59.6%96 W · 65 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	50c	285.53$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.96	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over	50c	235.23$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.68	672	48.8%328 W · 344 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	51c	213.88$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.76	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Under	9c	213.32$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	107	18.7%20 W · 87 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under	49c	213$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.37	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	92	55.4%51 W · 41 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Over	49c	199.99$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	357	44.3%158 W · 199 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f79…f7f7backed Over	49c	199.98$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.99	94	42.6%40 W · 54 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	48c	186.92$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.25	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x975b…3760backed Over	48c	161.46$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.96	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Over	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	293	52.9%155 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under	51c	136.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.86	775	49.2%381 W · 394 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x461b…30ddbacked Under	52c	134.93$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-6.1wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under	52c	126.92$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	218	43.6%95 W · 123 L	-15.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1629…8510backed Under	48c	125$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	102	49%50 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	49c	108.16$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.16	890	48.8%434 W · 456 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c06…bbeebacked Over	48c	105.83$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.59	134	48.5%65 W · 69 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	786	48.7%383 W · 403 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	19c	97.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.21	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Over	48c	88.16$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.84	388	53.4%207 W · 181 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Under	24c	83.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	298	48%143 W · 155 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Under	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked Under	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Over	50c	65.65$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.14	686	45.5%312 W · 374 L	-22.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	49c	62.43$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over	76c	60.1$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.14	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	48c	58$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.16	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under	50c	57.6$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	1,322	49.9%660 W · 662 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	519	46.8%243 W · 276 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…65e7backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under	46c	49.35$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	236	51.3%121 W · 115 L	+11.3wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Under	51c	43.6$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.17	584	50.2%293 W · 291 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65af…df77backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	121	47.9%58 W · 63 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…af90backed Over	50c	31.86$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.93	224	54.5%122 W · 102 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Under	50c	31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	327	52.9%173 W · 154 L	+11.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Under	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	405	48.6%197 W · 208 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Under	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	161	50.9%82 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7492…6568backed Under	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	319	55.2%176 W · 143 L	+13.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	151	44.4%67 W · 84 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	51c	26.14$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.72	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e4a…4ce0backed Under	51c	25.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e4a…1a5cbacked Under	52c	25.11$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Over	51c	24.94$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.29	264	50%132 W · 132 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa709…8d1dbacked Under	50c	23.8$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	89	55.1%49 W · 40 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over	50c	23.8$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.9	525	52%273 W · 252 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52fe…effdbacked Under	50c	23.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	88	40.9%36 W · 52 L	-7.0wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under	49c	23.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	1,393	48.3%673 W · 720 L	+19.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea34…8efcbacked Over	50c	22.1$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe16…5fa2backed Under	51c	20.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	64	42.2%27 W · 37 L	-5.5wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Over	50c	20.41$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.21	272	51.1%139 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	969	56.3%546 W · 423 L	+26.0wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bca…9a33backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9071…8d07backed Over	55c	19.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5this page
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Magic won
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
Goga Bitadze: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Magic vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
Magic vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Over won
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
Max Strus: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Magic won
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Magic won
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Magic won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event