TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof Heroic, Gentle Mates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Gentle Mates73c19,953$14,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,477.4222468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic33c9,718$3,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,238.151,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Heroic34c8,107$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.511,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Heroic30c7,322$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.0288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Gentle Mates44c6,132$2,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,437.6353545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Gentle Mates48c5,000$2,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.3481843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Gentle Mates68c3,565$2,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.244,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed Heroic56c3,333$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.4815052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Gentle Mates57c3,174$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.318670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Heroic57c2,698$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.167041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Heroic33c2,153$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.211,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Gentle Mates43c1,850$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.575245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Gentle Mates71c1,501$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.561,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Gentle Mates43c1,489$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.237157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Heroic28c1,350$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.491,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17fe…b0cabacked Heroic58c1,290$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.2515838%60 W · 98 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heroic41c1,219$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.523,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Gentle Mates43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.791,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Heroic23c1,041$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.1843237.7%163 W · 269 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gentle Mates71c1,010$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.9987047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Gentle Mates71c1,000$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2953,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Heroic11c999.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11241716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Gentle Mates73c975.34$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.431,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Heroic18c933$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2661034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Gentle Mates50c918.35$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.3428657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Heroic55c818.2$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.0140140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Heroic42c804.44$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.966,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Heroic57c802.65$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.2453746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Heroic28c779.33$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8840253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Heroic46c684.98$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0919741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x941f…bac9backed Heroic30c660$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1986020%12 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed Heroic59c610$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.913550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Gentle Mates73c587$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.352,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Heroic45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1544939.2%176 W · 273 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Gentle Mates41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29514454.2%78 W · 66 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Heroic60c499.91$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025070.8%177 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Gentle Mates41c495.95$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.615,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1393…ba33backed Heroic41c481.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016546.7%77 W · 88 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Heroic43c481.31$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.350846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Heroic55c458.5$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.1723243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Heroic37c438.99$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.575,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Heroic60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0fb…b170backed Gentle Mates43c399.93$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9611442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Gentle Mates66c395.74$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.534,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Gentle Mates72c380.53$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1072,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1da…dffbbacked Gentle Mates51c354.49$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.094040%16 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Heroic18c324$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3243544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Heroic10c309$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.161,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Heroic57c297$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2953444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bcd…2051backed Gentle Mates41c263.15$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.266749.3%33 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Heroic38c246.48$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.754,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Heroic20c240$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.61,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Heroic59c235$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6510138.6%39 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…8d97backed Gentle Mates79c231.59$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6632662%202 W · 124 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Heroic37c222$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0210133.7%34 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7e…cbbdbacked Gentle Mates44c221.59$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.592850%14 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Gentle Mates71c215.24$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.452,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Heroic35c206.43$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.594,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Heroic58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e6…e722backed Heroic58c199.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9926245.8%120 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed Gentle Mates65c194.55$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3567372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xe2fe…695dbacked Gentle Mates43c177.56$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5614940.3%60 W · 89 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca78…b3a8backed Gentle Mates57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.443455.9%19 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Heroic58c169.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0916650.6%84 W · 82 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Gentle Mates42c166.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6737232.5%121 W · 251 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Gentle Mates72c147.4$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7617756.5%100 W · 77 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Gentle Mates72c147.4$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7610254.9%56 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Gentle Mates71c147.29$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.581,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gentle Mates70c140.75$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.537,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Heroic12c139$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.193,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed Heroic58c136.21$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7911959.7%71 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Heroic21c123.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.642,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf6bf…05b6backed Heroic35c120.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.288724.1%21 W · 66 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Gentle Mates64c115.73$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7376248.4%369 W · 393 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1485…f4b2backed Heroic61c114.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Heroic19c113.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1410725.2%27 W · 80 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed Heroic23c101$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2313142%55 W · 76 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Gentle Mates72c100.07$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.461,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Heroic18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830348.5%147 W · 156 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Heroic38c99.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.222,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Gentle Mates78c98.07$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.884,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf99e…bde6backed Gentle Mates76c94.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3458762.2%365 W · 222 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c0…244ebacked Gentle Mates43c93.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4512839.8%51 W · 77 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3600…f72bbacked Gentle Mates43c93.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0231950.5%161 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Heroic54c91.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.042,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Gentle Mates72c89$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9219329%56 W · 137 L-23.4wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Heroic58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022654.9%124 W · 102 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9851…1320backed Gentle Mates79c86.07$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9412848.4%62 W · 66 L-11.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Heroic29c85.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.062,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6571…3217backed Heroic59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Heroic48c83.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.961,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Heroic59c81.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4838456.3%216 W · 168 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd91…3cc3backed Gentle Mates43c75.23$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.884344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gentle Mates71c67.92$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.75,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc4…d48cbacked Gentle Mates43c64.65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8513543.7%59 W · 76 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Heroic34c63.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5137441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed Gentle Mates48c62.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.467332.9%24 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c36…08f5backed Gentle Mates43c59.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.85036%18 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Heroic33c56.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.571,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07fc…b574backed Gentle Mates43c56.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.976159%36 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.