Fifa International · resolved market
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5166f67567d660692831f8b06a3ef2d9236f07964ec37df6fec142a04b65b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Yes | 17c | 4,021$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.58 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +14.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Yes | 18c | 2,650$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.57 | 192 | 50%96 W · 96 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 20c | 2,298$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.12 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 19c | 2,134$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.36 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 1,883$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.55 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Yes | 17c | 1,852$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.92 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Yes | 20c | 1,211$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.49 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 78c | 1,123$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.87 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Yes | 21c | 895$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.26 | 770 | 51.3%395 W · 375 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Yes | 19c | 894.74$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Yes | 18c | 860.59$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 261 | 55.2%144 W · 117 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 80c | 837.48$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.94 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 17c | 735$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 17c | 735$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 17c | 735$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 75c | 725.49$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.37 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…7a58backed Yes | 17c | 558.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 87 | 31%27 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Yes | 18c | 493.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…3b4dbacked Yes | 18c | 464.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Yes | 21c | 445.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 791 | 49.2%389 W · 402 L | +28.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 20c | 299.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed No | 79c | 298$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 201 | 86.1%173 W · 28 L | +46.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 297.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Yes | 21c | 274.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 480 | 55.2%265 W · 215 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 77c | 265.98$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…f001backed Yes | 23c | 265.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 265.59$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319a…039bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 12.3%9 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac5a…1ac8backed Yes | 17c | 223.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Yes | 20c | 195$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 415 | 51.8%215 W · 200 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…2e88backed Yes | 22c | 194.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x118c…ae45backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 251 | 15.5%39 W · 212 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…ba99backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 35.3%54 W · 99 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…31cabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Yes | 20c | 65.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 402 | 40%161 W · 241 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 78c | 62.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 32.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 26.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…a686backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 184 | 73.4%135 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw?this page
- Portugal to win the second half?Yes won
- Uzbekistan to win the second half?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.