TailMyPicks

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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
100 Thievesof CYBERSHOKE Esports, 100 Thieves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7600…4478backed CYBERSHOKE Esports37c4,200$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.9928248.9%138 W · 144 L+21.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed CYBERSHOKE Esports36c3,200$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.9884958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed 100 Thieves62c3,091$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.1572453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe9…c6dcbacked 100 Thieves64c1,966$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.535660.7%34 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed CYBERSHOKE Esports36c1,673$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.21,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed CYBERSHOKE Esports37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.991,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports37c1,459$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54020539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports38c1,300$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49427530.9%85 W · 190 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed 100 Thieves64c1,294$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.249646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481d…9098backed 100 Thieves63c1,174$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.146259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed 100 Thieves62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3801,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports44c1,000$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.515,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed 100 Thieves67c930$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.6346344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed CYBERSHOKE Esports37c888.74$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.5887244.8%391 W · 481 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed CYBERSHOKE Esports30c857.26$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.9650340.2%202 W · 301 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed 100 Thieves65c840$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.243852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa097…8795backed 100 Thieves63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.6517347.4%82 W · 91 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked 100 Thieves66c726$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.9749745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked 100 Thieves66c692$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.6848948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked 100 Thieves66c643$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.2854346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed 100 Thieves63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2225257.7%30 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked CYBERSHOKE Esports24c531.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.511,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9589…5b36backed 100 Thieves62c499.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1904862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed 100 Thieves63c412.7$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.713453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed 100 Thieves64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14418943.4%82 W · 107 L-0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7810…d52fbacked 100 Thieves69c400$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1241729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-41.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0b4…834ebacked 100 Thieves76c395.39$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.399561.1%58 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed CYBERSHOKE Esports38c382.02$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8245244.5%201 W · 251 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed CYBERSHOKE Esports21c360.38$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.681,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed CYBERSHOKE Esports19c334$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4625934%88 W · 171 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed 100 Thieves63c318.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7334547.5%164 W · 181 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6483…750abacked CYBERSHOKE Esports38c317.46$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.466642.4%28 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed 100 Thieves63c301.59$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5919351.8%100 W · 93 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked 100 Thieves55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13549849.6%247 W · 251 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d1…f540backed CYBERSHOKE Esports36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10817849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed CYBERSHOKE Esports19c299.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4678348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed CYBERSHOKE Esports36c270$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.224038.3%92 W · 148 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed CYBERSHOKE Esports40c249.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9967651.8%350 W · 326 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1487…d443backed CYBERSHOKE Esports38c237$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.066944.9%31 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed 100 Thieves73c226.18$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.244,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3938…c6cbbacked 100 Thieves78c221.28$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.686256.5%35 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked CYBERSHOKE Esports37c202.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.971,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4013…406bbacked 100 Thieves63c200$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6615063.3%95 W · 55 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…bce9backed 100 Thieves64c181.25$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.259552.6%50 W · 45 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports35c176.38$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7313756.2%77 W · 60 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked CYBERSHOKE Esports24c174.17$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.133,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed CYBERSHOKE Esports8c161.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.965034%17 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6aa7…db93backed 100 Thieves63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7321867%146 W · 72 L+0.7wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed 100 Thieves64c157.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.283265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked 100 Thieves64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2558149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed CYBERSHOKE Esports37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.521723%50 W · 167 L-35.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-61.2%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed CYBERSHOKE Esports37c150$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.554032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports37c149.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.543640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…24d2backed CYBERSHOKE Esports38c149.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.997742.9%33 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 100 Thieves62c141.47$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.144,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed 100 Thieves69c133.59$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5996545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed CYBERSHOKE Esports17c132.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.16,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked 100 Thieves63c124.87$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed CYBERSHOKE Esports37c116$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4129647.6%141 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed 100 Thieves61c111.81$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6517758.2%103 W · 74 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked CYBERSHOKE Esports25c110$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2724249.2%119 W · 123 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports14c106.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.655,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed CYBERSHOKE Esports38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4059049.7%293 W · 297 L-31.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed CYBERSHOKE Esports38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.539237.2%146 W · 246 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked CYBERSHOKE Esports39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3970038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed 100 Thieves62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3824850.4%125 W · 123 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked 100 Thieves62c87.44$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2345450.2%228 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b8…d47dbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports35c85.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060857.2%348 W · 260 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed CYBERSHOKE Esports41c81$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.531,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93cf…29d1backed 100 Thieves64c77.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.975754.4%31 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed 100 Thieves61c72.88$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4231731.9%101 W · 216 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked CYBERSHOKE Esports21c71.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9970036.1%253 W · 447 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf24…1208backed CYBERSHOKE Esports48c70.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.055843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed CYBERSHOKE Esports27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…a520backed 100 Thieves63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.210554.3%57 W · 48 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed 100 Thieves70c59.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.812158.7%71 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed CYBERSHOKE Esports21c57.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0865546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed 100 Thieves58c55.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5140247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed CYBERSHOKE Esports38c46.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7525147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked 100 Thieves66c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4533657.1%192 W · 144 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed 100 Thieves63c44.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4473658.2%428 W · 308 L-22.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe93f…6769backed 100 Thieves60c41.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.675257.7%30 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed 100 Thieves56c40.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9843239.1%169 W · 263 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed 100 Thieves64c39.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0622555.6%125 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc77c…bfffbacked 100 Thieves69c28.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.86887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick63cpaid+37.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa081…77e6backed 100 Thieves76c26.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.331457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5fc…28abbacked 100 Thieves56c26.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.451735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x847d…2505backed 100 Thieves67c25.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.331136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0510…4c9cbacked 100 Thieves64c25.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0313449.3%66 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked 100 Thieves75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3460147.4%285 W · 316 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b92…c894backed 100 Thieves66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.854481.8%36 W · 8 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bbb…2948backed 100 Thieves66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.817070%119 W · 51 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked 100 Thieves79c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.992,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed 100 Thieves64c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4141054.6%224 W · 186 L+29.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked 100 Thieves69c17.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.483,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed 100 Thieves63c15.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9126958.4%157 W · 112 L+20.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7392…c324backed 100 Thieves64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.