TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,114 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad72…4f5ebacked Over54c1,503$817 inWon+$685.3775942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Under57c1,024$584 inLost-$583.611,52254.7%832 W · 690 L+37.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under38c785.68$298 inLost-$297.762,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under46c433.18$198 inLost-$198.312,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Over43c406.95$175 inWon+$231.961,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7004…b7c4backed Under41c361.77$150 inLost-$149.758160.5%49 W · 32 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under46c267.03$124 inLost-$124.1641141.6%171 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Over43c225$97 inWon+$128.2516647.6%79 W · 87 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Over49c204.87$100 inWon+$104.872955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over51c166.65$85 inWon+$81.911,73029.5%510 W · 1,220 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Over43c150$65 inWon+$85.536040.6%146 W · 214 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under46c133.99$61 inLost-$61.2140543.7%177 W · 228 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under51c131.39$67 inLost-$67.3760849.5%301 W · 307 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0c…c8adbacked Under56c124.12$70 inLost-$703737.8%14 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05bc…eabbbacked Over50c123.27$62 inWon+$61.6314139%55 W · 86 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under51c101.29$52 inLost-$51.6639044.6%174 W · 216 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Under74c99.99$74 inLost-$73.9936660.1%220 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over43c93.51$40 inWon+$53.310452.9%55 W · 49 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x344f…1a45backed Under51c78.43$40 inLost-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over45c77.89$35 inWon+$42.92,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Over54c68.36$37 inWon+$31.6436044.7%161 W · 199 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over61c62$38 inWon+$23.91,93135.9%693 W · 1,238 L-98.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Under28c60.99$17 inLost-$17.243,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Under35c52.95$18 inLost-$18.291,14330.8%352 W · 791 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Over49c50.48$25 inWon+$25.8120332%65 W · 138 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Under51c47.94$25 inLost-$24.61,18166%780 W · 401 L+70.1wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over43c47$20 inWon+$26.7911048.2%53 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under49c42.74$21 inLost-$21.0634834.2%119 W · 229 L-39.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-42.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1dc2…a9ebbacked Under58c31.36$18 inLost-$18.194757.4%27 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Over51c30$15 inWon+$14.750345.7%230 W · 273 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c7…264fbacked Over43c25$11 inWon+$14.2528040%112 W · 168 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over43c24$10 inWon+$13.6857333%189 W · 384 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Over52c23.66$12 inWon+$11.2430246.4%140 W · 162 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under49c22.43$11 inLost-$11.0275150.7%381 W · 370 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.