Tennis · resolved market
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Daniel Milavsky
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6afc047a7f19fdd0d2227f4c685c36aad93bee5d9c9af448da4c6f7dbf5f0b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colton Smithof Colton Smith, Daniel Milavsky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Daniel Milavsky | 9c | 10,150$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.13 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Daniel Milavsky | 12c | 8,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Colton Smith | 77c | 2,598$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.86 | 620 | 61.9%384 W · 236 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…96b5backed Daniel Milavsky | 26c | 1,997$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.25 | 444 | 48.9%217 W · 227 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Daniel Milavsky | 22c | 1,743$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.63 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Daniel Milavsky | 23c | 1,717$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.29 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Daniel Milavsky | 15c | 1,468$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.94 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Daniel Milavsky | 25c | 1,314$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.98 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Colton Smith | 80c | 1,221$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.24 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…590abacked Daniel Milavsky | 33c | 985.15$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.97 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6c…d56cbacked Daniel Milavsky | 26c | 952.65$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.69 | 244 | 51.6%126 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Daniel Milavsky | 22c | 839.21$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.76 | 374 | 21.9%82 W · 292 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Daniel Milavsky | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Colton Smith | 80c | 757.06$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.41 | 141 | 62.4%88 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Daniel Milavsky | 29c | 756.31$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.33 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Daniel Milavsky | 25c | 669$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.93 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad5…780ebacked Daniel Milavsky | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Daniel Milavsky | 21c | 598.81$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…cc1bbacked Daniel Milavsky | 26c | 562.46$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Daniel Milavsky | 23c | 543.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…bfa2backed Daniel Milavsky | 27c | 452.06$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.07 | 335 | 40.9%137 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Daniel Milavsky | 12c | 424$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Colton Smith | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…df4bbacked Colton Smith | 76c | 398.03$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +12.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…5715backed Daniel Milavsky | 12c | 378.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…78cdbacked Daniel Milavsky | 13c | 342.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Colton Smith | 79c | 341.93$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Daniel Milavsky | 16c | 320.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Daniel Milavsky | 15c | 317.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…b178backed Daniel Milavsky | 12c | 291.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 334 | 9.6%32 W · 302 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Colton Smith | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Colton Smith | 75c | 263.16$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Daniel Milavsky | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 232 | 47%109 W · 123 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Daniel Milavsky | 14c | 238.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Colton Smith | 75c | 217.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 917 | 55.5%509 W · 408 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Colton Smith | 73c | 217.48$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Daniel Milavsky | 20c | 214.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Daniel Milavsky | 25c | 213.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c5…17e8backed Daniel Milavsky | 12c | 209.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Daniel Milavsky | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Daniel Milavsky | 26c | 192.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Daniel Milavsky | 11c | 157$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Daniel Milavsky | 20c | 156.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Daniel Milavsky | 16c | 153.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Daniel Milavsky | 12c | 153$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57d…07bfbacked Daniel Milavsky | 29c | 152.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Colton Smith | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 231 | 59.3%137 W · 94 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Colton Smith | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Colton Smith | 74c | 128.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Daniel Milavsky | 29c | 106.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Daniel Milavsky | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Colton Smith | 71c | 99.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Daniel Milavsky | 16c | 97.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Daniel Milavsky | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Daniel Milavsky | 24c | 87.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Daniel Milavsky | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Colton Smith | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 182 | 58.8%107 W · 75 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…9256backed Daniel Milavsky | 20c | 75.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Daniel Milavsky | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Colton Smith | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Daniel Milavsky | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f90…1b35backed Colton Smith | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf32…6cf3backed Daniel Milavsky | 24c | 55.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…5629backed Colton Smith | 78c | 50.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831d…0705backed Colton Smith | 79c | 47.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 265 | 63.8%169 W · 96 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…e4e3backed Colton Smith | 79c | 43.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…4498backed Daniel Milavsky | 26c | 42.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Daniel Milavsky | 24c | 41.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Daniel Milavsky | 27c | 41.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…adcdbacked Colton Smith | 75c | 34.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Colton Smith | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…b8dbbacked Colton Smith | 79c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…1668backed Colton Smith | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 179 | 57.5%103 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colton Smith | 74c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Colton Smith | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Colton Smith | 80c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…1bf1backed Colton Smith | 75c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…3f90backed Colton Smith | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…7889backed Colton Smith | 80c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 560 | 70.7%396 W · 164 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.