TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,010 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb63b…d7f2backed Yes0c24,074$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41c…3c9bbacked Yes1c7,214$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe353…4efcbacked Yes31c2,240$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes31c2,044$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.9528324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c1,752$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.412,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes31c1,519$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.4590040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes1c1,093$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…3620backed Yes32c1,007$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No70c896.34$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.051,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c800.11$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.865,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd926…e9cebacked Yes24c542.79$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.442653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No69c520.81$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.552,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No65c483.5$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.518,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes28c438.67$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.822,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3634918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe245…cb37backed Yes23c375$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No77c312.9$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.984,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No70c306$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.83,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No68c302.77$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.941,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No69c299$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.691,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No71c298.87$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6763255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No69c260$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.624546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes15c253$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.933,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes38c243.04$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9218222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No64c231.7$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3624262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes28c231.61$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.851,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb182…aef4backed Yes35c219.49$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.912025%5 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed No68c213.94$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8723429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes31c201.79$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.688028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c196$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed Yes35c194.8$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3511950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No69c189.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.176,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes24c174.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes19c157.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.234,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes8c155$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5490734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes32c148.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0930442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes17c145.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.192,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c143.89$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes35c134.71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7313423.1%31 W · 103 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes34c133.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7815027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbe3…6599backed Yes36c132.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.731533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe549…0bcebacked Yes30c126$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c121.81$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.793,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No65c121.63$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.633,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No67c121.62$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6994552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c120.91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No65c116.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.34,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No69c105.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c103$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.745,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes17c102.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9348919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No62c101.25$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5154253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c100.83$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.349,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No69c100.38$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0815553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3177555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3323731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327413.5%10 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes19c91.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.371,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed No64c87.17$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1787437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes28c86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.082,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No72c83.12$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.164,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c81.82$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.857,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…f288backed Yes32c78.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No69c75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes20c68.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.791,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes26c68.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7122645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No73c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c5c…81a3backed Yes33c64.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.482454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No65c61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1264167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.24,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes46c58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.676936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No70c56.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.861,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes27c55.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.966,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes24c52.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.442,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No69c52.39$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2449551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb07…5b0fbacked No61c51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8412060%72 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1716148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1630849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1721950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.517633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1713351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1718254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No58c48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1666543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes41c47.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.697846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fd…e7dcbacked Yes31c46.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.442147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes27c44.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.111,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes32c42.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6515868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No70c42.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.531,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f4…9ffcbacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes32c39.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7915334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x308f…8607backed No73c34.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.454348.8%21 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes30c33.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c16…d262backed No75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.337757.1%44 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No48c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.01955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.