TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,325
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,325 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1be…5306backed Yes0c20,060$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c8,798$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.113,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…3c9bbacked Yes1c5,964$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes0c5,012$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No69c1,506$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.411,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58d7…1075backed Yes38c1,281$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes6c1,209$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes1c1,086$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.043,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes1c1,031$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes21c1,000$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.0988028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes5c770.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.465540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes43c510.84$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.51850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No63c472.05$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.852,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes13c453.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes6c416$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.966219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes13c409.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.191,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes19c387.16$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.824,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes3c386.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.538,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No73c344.72$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7240265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes10c304.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.082,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd496…4956backed Yes28c300$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe245…cb37backed Yes37c284.14$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes25c252$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.722,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f23…f9d9backed Yes28c249.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No57c219.83$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb33…19d9backed Yes34c205.38$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.326437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed No59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4423429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes40c194.61$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.711,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No80c186.75$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3524262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes35c160.79$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6323731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c156.1$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.415,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No62c155.06$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.862,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked No71c154.54$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2616543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes35c149.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.52,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes31c148.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.771,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes42c148$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8630442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No68c145.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0632872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No62c140$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6724546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd926…e9cebacked No58c137.74$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.032653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes32c134.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.484,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes32c130.2$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4276936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes40c126.26$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5115027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No64c123.74$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.512,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c119.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No80c110$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.346,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No57c110$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.21,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea6…abc0backed Yes34c107.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes47c103.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1236930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c103$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.175,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes29c101.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No62c92$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1789557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1790…6fd2backed Yes44c90$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.654334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c87.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.317,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes32c83.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4887437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c83.11$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.764,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes15c81.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.131,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked Yes15c79.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.225729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes31c75.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1767336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes34c72.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c72.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.116,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.515915.7%25 W · 134 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes33c64.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1297152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c63.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.849,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No67c62.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.383,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes28c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.490734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes40c53.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.262,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb75f…f98bbacked No71c52.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.364647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes39c52.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.628247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No71c51.34$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.136648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.530849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2060550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa874…c532backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.554253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b7…cdb7backed No71c49.58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.383357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.899,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No61c45.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.752,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked No68c44.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1715868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa242…605abacked No69c42.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.07666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad95…bfeabacked Yes34c41.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.362268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.9wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed Yes40c41.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6317633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes31c39.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No77c36.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes39c35.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9435742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No77c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0217165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes32c34.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.123,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No61c33.54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.032,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No76c32.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.24,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes41c29.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.281,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe17…474cbacked No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991275%9 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.399571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No61c26.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.462,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Yes39c25.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104045%18 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25e5…d09cbacked No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes43c23.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x796b…92c3backed No70c23.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.931369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No68c22.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1850261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4326958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.