Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9913bdd5ad83d3559e1046ebc4ebd23e4460310ede232fc129f1a5bdb5ace7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 10c | 1,095$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 36c | 1,078$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 32c | 943.63$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 75c | 638.19$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.04 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 575.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 18c | 545.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.42 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 73c | 542.63$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…286bbacked Yes | 71c | 513.41$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.51 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 468.31$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 458.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 72c | 440.55$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 387$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 12c | 382.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 46c | 379.54$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.73 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 75c | 373.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 43c | 367.18$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.52 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 6c | 364.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 362.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…f850backed No | 9c | 351.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 8c | 306.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 18c | 277.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 266.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 51c | 250.88$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.01 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…8eb1backed No | 8c | 236.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d9…cf16backed Yes | 45c | 228.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 226.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 25c | 225$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 80c | 212.54$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 20c | 206.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.9 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes | 50c | 202.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 24c | 201$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked No | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 52c | 198$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 17c | 188.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 20c | 184.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 19c | 181.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.04 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 66c | 173.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 65c | 172.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes | 71c | 162$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes | 76c | 157.92$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 8c | 155.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…c532backed Yes | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 21c | 148$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 18c | 141.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 74c | 134.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 32c | 124.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 20c | 120.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed No | 10c | 117.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 32c | 117.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 31c | 117.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 19c | 112.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 54c | 112.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 20c | 112.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 17c | 111.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…5306backed Yes | 77c | 103.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 103$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 59c | 98.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 22c | 95.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 54c | 93.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 13c | 93.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…0feabacked Yes | 21c | 93.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 20c | 87.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 21c | 81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 45c | 80.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 24c | 80.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 29c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 77c | 71.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 76c | 70.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 21c | 70.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 69.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 67.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 65.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 21c | 63.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 60c | 62.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 58.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 29c | 57.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 55c | 56.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 21c | 55.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 24c | 55.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 73c | 55.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 20c | 54.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 28c | 50.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 64c | 49.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 47.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 46c | 46.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 24c | 46.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 46.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 22c | 45.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 23c | 44.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 31c | 42.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed Yes | 75c | 40.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed No | 43c | 40.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.