TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,483
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,483 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x438a…61c4backed No10c1,095$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.823143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No36c1,078$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.318,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No32c943.63$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.634,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes75c638.19$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.0420231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No14c575.67$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.814,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes18c545.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.421,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes73c542.63$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.261,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a96…286bbacked Yes71c513.41$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.512437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+122.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No49c468.31$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.354,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No14c458.32$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.882,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed Yes72c440.55$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.4114054.3%76 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No26c387$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.775,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No12c382.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6566543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes46c379.54$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.7320327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1104…1f70backed Yes75c373.98$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8514151.8%73 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes43c367.18$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.5288028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No6c364.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No16c362.36$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.996,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23a5…f850backed No9c351.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00fe…52e2backed No8c306.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.034353.5%23 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No18c277.34$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7832041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes21c266.95$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.151,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes51c250.88$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0140265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb5a0…8eb1backed No8c236.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d9…cf16backed Yes45c228.64$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.545916.9%10 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c226.59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.589,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No25c225$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5614359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8867…7683backed Yes80c212.54$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.517240.3%29 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes20c206.28$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.923731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes50c202.97$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.341850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No24c201$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0363143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb11f…336fbacked No19c199.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes52c198$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2433962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No17c188.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.091,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No20c184.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes19c181.75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.041,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d98…261ebacked Yes66c173.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.56750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes65c172.89$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.051,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes71c162$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.143930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes76c157.92$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.921947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No8c155.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8449646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa874…c532backed Yes71c150$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf767…f052backed No78c150$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1178461.9%52 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes21c148$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.830442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes18c141.67$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1276936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes74c134.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.723135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No32c124.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes20c120.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd132…d314backed No10c117.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.383751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No32c117.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No31c117.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.423,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…2305backed Yes19c112.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.527213.9%10 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes54c112.76$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5241051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No20c112.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7547136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No17c111.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1248919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1be…5306backed Yes77c103.29$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.76425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No79c103$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.145,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes59c98.43$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6115027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes22c95.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9715553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes54c93.68$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No13c93.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5da9…0feabacked Yes21c93.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+133.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked No20c87.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.016744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes21c81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9954853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No45c80.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.374,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…d8b2backed Yes24c80.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.196418.8%12 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No29c78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7115236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes77c71.34$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.418252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes76c70.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes21c70.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c70$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c69.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.599,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes19c67.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.921,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No58c65.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc209…7082backed Yes21c63.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.029935.4%35 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked No60c62.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.585729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c58.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.795,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed Yes66c58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.915346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No29c57.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes55c56.86$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4135264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes21c55.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1515449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff32…7da9backed No24c55.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.36536.9%24 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes73c55.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes20c54.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5616220.4%33 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No28c50.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0155954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x589b…0ec7backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked No38c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7835742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes64c49.1$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7720546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes66c47.43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.961,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes46c46.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.456439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes24c46.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.622,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes49c46.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.776,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc419…ca5bbacked No22c45.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.161747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd926…e9cebacked No23c44.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.332653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes31c42.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.762,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0295…49d0backed Yes75c40.84$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.212540%10 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa57c…bf42backed No43c40.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.412737%10 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5953…192fbacked Yes75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.