TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,969
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,969 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c5,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30358.6%3 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,167$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.811,4438.8%127 W · 1,316 L-53.1wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes31c1,448$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.971811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes10c700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7022129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No67c600$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1986864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c572$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.421505.3%8 W · 142 L+0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1752871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac5f…eb06backed Yes27c341.57$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c270.62$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7986338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7d7…256bbacked No76c260$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed No69c256.38$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5118853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No73c227.21$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.881,77549%869 W · 906 L+141.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e54…6631backed No79c199.08$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes36c193.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7515131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No63c152$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6735151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes11c144$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.283920.5%8 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed No77c144$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.955628.6%16 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c123.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5751927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3f…6154backed No54c121$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd92d…e8fdbacked No54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c119.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5527429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd209…e499backed No54c118$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa317…7f10backed No54c118$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x495f…8f44backed No54c118$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d73…a063backed No54c115$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9482…4409backed No54c113$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8b7…7ebdbacked No54c113$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5040…ab13backed No54c113$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f0…9947backed No54c111$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd36e…79b5backed No54c111$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x621b…61e5backed No54c111$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8704…bac8backed No54c109$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd7…23f3backed No54c108$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc4…58cbbacked No54c108$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4029…e5dbbacked No54c108$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c07…c0d0backed No54c106$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0861…1d1dbacked No54c106$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb6…ff71backed No54c105$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No56c104.72$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.085937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b94…271fbacked No54c104$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd349…6cb6backed No54c103$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…8a4cbacked No54c102$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7bb…0fd6backed Yes37c99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa26d…ed0ebacked Yes46c98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes19c98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.627726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf395…763dbacked Yes46c98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1224…d110backed Yes46c97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x150b…ad7ebacked Yes46c97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af9…2b7fbacked Yes46c96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b3…08b4backed Yes46c96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6d…bd44backed Yes46c96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12e2…0cb4backed Yes46c94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb29…bf0dbacked Yes46c93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6c…975abacked Yes46c92$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…4971backed Yes46c92$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e8…5ce8backed Yes46c92$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbff…3b7dbacked No54c91$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c7d…441ebacked Yes46c91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf4…c207backed Yes46c88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x862a…d2c8backed Yes46c86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2c…3661backed Yes46c86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa808…be34backed Yes46c86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb8…3a15backed Yes46c84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c8…0b3cbacked Yes46c83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42dc…72afbacked Yes46c82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No54c81.48$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1360229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed Yes24c81.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.411,10643.9%486 W · 620 L+27.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x451a…b2f0backed Yes46c81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3410…97a6backed Yes46c79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb0…9cebbacked Yes46c79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e52…5995backed Yes46c78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fae…a76cbacked Yes46c77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6594…e2c7backed Yes46c77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ddd…70ebbacked Yes46c76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc347…a05fbacked Yes46c76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1918…353cbacked Yes46c76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes28c72.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.337522.7%17 W · 58 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No76c61.73$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.829324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed No70c61.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.52771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b45…f70fbacked No55c49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8f…96b7backed Yes46c49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe704…dcccbacked Yes45c38.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe763…6a2cbacked No54c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes36c37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.321030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes41c35.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4516418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39f6…c6efbacked Yes35c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.554818.8%9 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No79c23.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.94934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x417e…52d4backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83672.2%26 W · 10 L+9.9wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+62.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.