Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a21dc73947e3f04e662b3b9137c2d1a0bac63a7e4bef5b066fe9c58695dfa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 70c | 4,940$3,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.82 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 15c | 1,220$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.91 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 43c | 1,121$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.01 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked No | 23c | 770$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 37c | 680.51$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.54 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 38c | 596.59$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 553.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked No | 20c | 405.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 67c | 370$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 27c | 352.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 44c | 335.92$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…cf16backed No | 26c | 321.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked No | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 26c | 292.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 15c | 265.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 262.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 239.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 54c | 237.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 185.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 37c | 172.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…6631backed No | 31c | 163.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…dcccbacked No | 31c | 144.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 137.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 14c | 127.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 50c | 107.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 65c | 103.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…1ac1backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…756bbacked No | 55c | 95.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed No | 48c | 90.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 76c | 77.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 18c | 66.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 27c | 65.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 71c | 50.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…2bfbbacked Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 70c | 38.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 69c | 33.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…fef3backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…9a86backed Yes | 54c | 29.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 64c | 28.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 68c | 24.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…85cabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed Yes | 70c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed No | 63c | 15.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of February?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $200 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of February?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of February?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.