TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,760
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,077

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,760 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x969f…4d55backed Yes55c4,406$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,402.141,10643.9%486 W · 620 L+27.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No66c2,080$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.3981240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No64c1,867$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.1835151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes31c1,493$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.11811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked No38c1,400$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8682540%10 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No75c989.28$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.621,77549%869 W · 906 L+141.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No35c931.4$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.919324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed No59c887.66$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.994245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No72c873.72$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.762688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No76c589.63$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7899038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eac…db7abacked No46c529$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.992630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20358.6%3 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3aff…e200backed No77c499.99$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes13c412.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.67147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-79%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed No53c326.28$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.8318853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed No80c322$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.623920.5%8 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No47c309.81$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.294934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No41c278.82$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.119934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4354…756bbacked No49c266.18$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked No70c254.8$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.324465.9%29 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292d…4500backed No41c252.89$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.131457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No47c243.01$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6360229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No69c215.94$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.945850%29 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebb2…c640backed No40c207.5$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.54738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ca9…37d1backed No79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No23c199.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.992250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x195e…1ac1backed Yes54c198.88$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No73c167.21$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.636864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No33c160$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.227338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc117…9f3abacked No29c155$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c150.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1251927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb192…4f37backed No29c149$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4605…9700backed No29c148$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a63…d247backed No29c146$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3512…2ffdbacked No29c146$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1684…154ebacked No29c146$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d44…affcbacked No29c144$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c4…f943backed No29c144$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes63c138.59$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.936643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No54c136.3$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.245937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca54…6646backed No29c132$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8510…67acbacked No29c131$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb827…1ff1backed No29c126$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No65c125.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.113941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87db…f278backed No29c125$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x681a…162bbacked No29c125$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…2830backed No29c124$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a67…1958backed No29c110$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd182…941ebacked No31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No40c96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.613147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a9…0b6bbacked Yes71c91$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a3b…fe44backed Yes71c91$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87fa…de4bbacked Yes71c90$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea7c…07fbbacked Yes71c90$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34a9…f8a1backed Yes71c88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e19…588cbacked Yes71c88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0b…276bbacked Yes71c85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x752d…00b6backed Yes71c85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc925…f8bebacked Yes71c84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes64c83.81$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3116248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9679…d7b0backed Yes71c82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x416f…af0bbacked Yes71c82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa99d…0bcebacked Yes71c81$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes19c81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.682030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe028…02a7backed Yes71c80$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03b…5a2dbacked Yes71c80$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda02…01c1backed Yes71c79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf781…c9abbacked Yes71c79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd95c…3da0backed Yes71c79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa6c…1c71backed Yes71c78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3efd…c62fbacked Yes71c78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c2c…0caebacked Yes71c78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad21…6b98backed Yes71c78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d7…609fbacked Yes71c78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3871…6dfcbacked Yes71c78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x912c…3bcbbacked Yes71c78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe704…dcccbacked No59c77.09$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.681414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f13…d72dbacked Yes71c71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed No38c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.41931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes50c64.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2631036.1%112 W · 198 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No32c59.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.653672.2%26 W · 10 L+9.9wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+62.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x39f6…c6efbacked No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344818.8%9 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No59c48.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.987522.7%17 W · 58 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes45c48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.527844.9%35 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No44c45.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8119419.1%37 W · 157 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.161764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c37.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2986338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes60c37.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3127429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No45c35.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2815131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed No73c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.551888.9%16 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+29%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No78c33.33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.337577.3%58 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e54…6631backed No54c31.35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.42944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No55c30.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+53.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes70c27.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.376963.8%44 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2143…89a0backed No65c26.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7088…0086backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.82580%20 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e34…9434backed Yes70c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid+14%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf124…9d72backed No63c17.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.48683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.