Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54d7dd423e045cbf49b85cf07d98fee662bd0fdf6eabfeccc745bbbc2dc9f630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,991$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…7b1ebacked No | 8c | 1,994$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 11c | 1,580$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…3af5backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 9c | 994.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…cf16backed No | 13c | 985.42$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 31c | 983.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.36 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 18c | 850.96$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.79 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 20c | 840.07$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.06 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 16c | 755.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 14c | 666.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…a524backed No | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…4690backed No | 18c | 588$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 20c | 515.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…b7aebacked Yes | 69c | 435.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 14c | 310.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 18c | 298.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 32c | 250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 248.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 219.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 21c | 202.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…60b4backed No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…756bbacked No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 44c | 177.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4b…5e66backed No | 20c | 169.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 8c | 154.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 169 | 49.1%83 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb4…126dbacked Yes | 74c | 151.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed No | 17c | 107.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 68c | 95.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 16c | 76.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed Yes | 69c | 52.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…415abacked No | 22c | 52.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…7e10backed No | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 58c | 32.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of February?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $200 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of February?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of February?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of February?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.