TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$429,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$440,146

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,751 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 441 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Falcons47c35,825$16,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,935.628748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed PARIVISION53c33,770$17,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,852.9842650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed PARIVISION50c32,872$16,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,508.8233746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed PARIVISION51c29,601$15,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,516.491952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed PARIVISION48c21,954$10,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,325.72751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Team Falcons49c20,408$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION52c20,291$10,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,699.4654556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked PARIVISION51c19,121$9,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,369.118258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Team Falcons49c18,433$9,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,075.7613045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Team Falcons48c12,414$5,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,958.9316050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed Team Falcons1c10,255$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Falcons51c10,032$5,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,110.8745139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Team Falcons41c8,255$3,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,416.7415047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Falcons48c8,000$3,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,809.9789440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Team Falcons42c7,830$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30018156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked PARIVISION52c7,073$3,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,413.5360542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed Team Falcons29c7,059$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.46850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons51c6,603$3,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,347.0277941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons17c6,306$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.82,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Team Falcons33c6,091$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.567143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Team Falcons41c6,080$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.5610741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Team Falcons49c5,780$2,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8324652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Falcons50c5,651$2,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,845.1122848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed PARIVISION50c5,555$2,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.532854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked PARIVISION54c5,523$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.7653451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed PARIVISION50c5,358$2,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,678.858242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8478…4355backed Team Falcons1c5,159$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453537.1%13 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons52c4,231$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20033850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Team Falcons49c4,202$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.554654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Falcons3c4,200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12631245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Falcons13c4,161$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.9434468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed PARIVISION53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.994245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed Team Falcons59c3,927$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3008655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed PARIVISION51c3,920$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9402857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Team Falcons33c3,736$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Team Falcons50c3,264$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6326647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed Team Falcons47c3,200$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5103928.2%11 W · 28 L-7.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed PARIVISION50c3,181$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.127645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed PARIVISION50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50015544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed PARIVISION53c3,000$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.9219742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0313…a2c7backed Team Falcons52c2,882$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked PARIVISION56c2,804$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.1222954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Falcons49c2,800$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.0619147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Team Falcons58c2,590$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons52c2,577$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.1386949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed PARIVISION50c2,441$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.8619242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed PARIVISION52c2,389$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.8819148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Team Falcons48c2,330$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1204055%22 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Falcons52c2,220$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.930138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Team Falcons47c2,064$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.124351.2%22 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Team Falcons53c2,060$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.634051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca9…d946backed PARIVISION50c2,020$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed Team Falcons50c2,016$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.088164.2%52 W · 29 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Falcons50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd1…cfb4backed PARIVISION80c2,000$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+114.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Team Falcons51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Team Falcons46c1,958$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.9710141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Falcons49c1,825$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.5134443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons46c1,740$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.3880443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons44c1,535$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.482,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed PARIVISION36c1,500$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.296547.7%31 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Team Falcons27c1,457$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40023746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked PARIVISION78c1,409$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.41060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Team Falcons27c1,405$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.2314121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed PARIVISION50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70023459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Team Falcons44c1,343$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5968461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce61…8ef6backed Team Falcons25c1,300$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.56127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea8…b084backed PARIVISION54c1,296$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.32040%8 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed Team Falcons48c1,269$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.282657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf54…320abacked Team Falcons18c1,258$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.44520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed PARIVISION50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6003551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed PARIVISION48c1,197$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.414932.7%16 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION55c1,196$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.81,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked PARIVISION59c1,191$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.8729160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c6…4cf3backed Team Falcons27c1,114$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.783740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefae…5cd1backed PARIVISION50c1,093$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.021560%9 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Team Falcons50c1,092$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.158750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Falcons26c1,091$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.52,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Team Falcons50c1,067$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.958253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Falcons49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7913441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c0e…35f8backed PARIVISION51c1,003$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.611241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Falcons53c1,003$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.4155251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked PARIVISION72c972.58$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.3285851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Team Falcons41c961.25$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39023529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab6c…88d9backed Team Falcons50c948.69$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.09757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Team Falcons57c939.72$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.872313%3 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Falcons41c896.24$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.6688166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Team Falcons47c865.96$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4074533.3%15 W · 30 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed PARIVISION76c861.17$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.1719552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Team Falcons47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Team Falcons47c846.19$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.7111947.1%56 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed PARIVISION48c836.83$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.8310456.7%59 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Team Falcons48c835.42$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014245.2%19 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x649d…ec03backed Team Falcons56c834.73$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4703941%16 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6633…dcfebacked Team Falcons47c832$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.044341.9%18 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Team Falcons47c820.38$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.586650%33 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Falcons51c777.62$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed Team Falcons29c753.88$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.752528%7 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fb0…cbc9backed Team Falcons57c753.12$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed PARIVISION53c733.57$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.9222945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.