La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b8b84c70b64ebb4cebb6e4828111b4e668361604d385e7d7925b59bd767f64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 41,398$9,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,981.02 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Under | 78c | 36,587$28,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,537.51 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 79c | 1,899$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 70c | 1,540$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.6 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 1,031$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.95 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Under | 65c | 917.37$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 17c | 889.2$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.04 | 75 | 73.3%55 W · 20 L | +20.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 37c | 708.47$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.07 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…f39abacked Under | 58c | 522.12$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…6d3cbacked Under | 78c | 500.13$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.31 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 18c | 459.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 26c | 454.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.33 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a94…0f59backed Under | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 67c | 275.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 128 | 75%96 W · 32 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…257ebacked Over | 61c | 249.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Over | 29c | 228.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed Under | 48c | 209.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 21c | 208.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.13 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc595…8f5ebacked Over | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…0dc5backed Under | 51c | 195.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Under | 36c | 161.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 159.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 141$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 72c | 138$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Over | 24c | 128$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 28c | 115.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…008dbacked Under | 51c | 90.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 84.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 63c | 79.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Under | 45c | 78.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…963cbacked Under | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ea31backed Over | 64c | 62.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 41c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 59c | 50.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Over | 24c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Over | 27c | 42.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Under | 76c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Over | 49c | 39.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 76c | 32.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Under | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Under | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Under | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Under | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca1…8efbbacked Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Under | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 69.2%81 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Under | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da9…ad9ebacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.