Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan vs. Napoli end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8cfd998f71eec5774731fc4a4a0bc1a72578ba725fa3cd6b43cd2d2dc960189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes | 29c | 97,025$28,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,000 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 71c | 40,344$28,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,702.88 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 72c | 30,038$21,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,421.27 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 21,028$5,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,876.45 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 71c | 19,963$14,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,850.83 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 71c | 7,000$4,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 73c | 4,097$2,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.18 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 2,328$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.18 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 71c | 2,249$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.21 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 73c | 1,540$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.61 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 70c | 1,143$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.86 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 71c | 951.63$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.97 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 929$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.41 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes | 32c | 813.92$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825f…0997backed Yes | 25c | 783.33$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 78c | 662.98$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.59 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 75c | 555.71$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…8dd9backed Yes | 34c | 555$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…b978backed Yes | 33c | 454.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 71c | 439$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.31 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…2989backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…33babacked Yes | 30c | 343$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 30c | 330.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Yes | 31c | 323.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 11c | 279.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Yes | 22c | 244.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 12c | 212$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 67c | 206.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…3eeebacked Yes | 30c | 200.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…6a3bbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…1eb7backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…b3ddbacked Yes | 28c | 190.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…1778backed Yes | 31c | 176.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 70c | 176.06$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 12c | 172.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed No | 70c | 163.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +253%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 23c | 103.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…2882backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 27c | 87.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 31c | 87.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 69c | 87.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Yes | 35c | 79.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 28c | 65.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 70c | 61.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed Yes | 24c | 56.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6adf…f52bbacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 70c | 21.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 69c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan vs. Napoli end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-28?Yes won
- Will Napoli win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.