TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,974
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,974 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x146f…9410backed Yes50c1,006$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes34c742.74$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.5926025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes40c502.95$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.6281558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes39c499.36$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.3625933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c467.8$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.824,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6764446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No53c407.32$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.831,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes41c401$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.7843932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c365.95$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.846,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc17…886abacked No45c311$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.357281.9%59 W · 13 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+18.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes31c305$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.11,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed No16c299.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7214919.5%29 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c289.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.494,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c282.43$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d3…e130backed No49c280.17$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.553743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes27c246.83$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4286847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x537e…a602backed Yes50c235.01$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.931241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c221.01$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.214,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No68c214.81$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2549646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes72c205.93$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.657979.7%63 W · 16 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed No76c197.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25e5…96bdbacked No56c179.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006653%35 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes32c178.4$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.283,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes34c173.08$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.584,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes50c167.73$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.751,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No52c166.59$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.053,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No51c156.49$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5824…7307backed Yes34c143.67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.435271.2%37 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c140$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c133.24$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.764,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes35c123.27$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0914752.4%77 W · 70 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No50c112.17$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.253,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c108.48$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.95,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1482742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf3…369dbacked No79c101.14$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.163959%23 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5022740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked No49c99.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9635429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No49c98.76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.734,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No59c97.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.541,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked Yes46c96.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.761,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c89.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.297,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No65c89$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0214254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes35c88.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.722,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c86.6$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.158,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No69c83.07$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes44c82.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5825342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes41c82.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7142948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.095,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes45c75.08$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4185049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes49c69.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.737144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No57c67.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.442,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes48c66.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.477,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes52c66.68$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9454656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes23c64.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.696,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d3…e694backed No77c61.57$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2316135.4%57 W · 104 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes41c59.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4159144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No33c59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.731,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c5…0a0dbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.821154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+80.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes49c58.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.221,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No55c58.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.091,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No62c58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.964,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes48c57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4328368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes19c52.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8626142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No55c52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.619071.6%136 W · 54 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes49c51.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.121,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes44c50.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.251,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No52c49.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.861,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No52c47.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.631,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No61c47.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.672,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No79c45.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7841966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No48c42.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.314,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No68c41.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.992,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed Yes45c40.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5329351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8189…a808backed Yes29c40.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.872842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.852,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.829927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No56c38.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6269520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes40c37.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.887540%30 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes35c33.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.733,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No60c33.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No64c33.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4821338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes33c33.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1224942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43eb…3d85backed No50c31.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.556046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5399571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.42,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No58c27.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.059262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes51c27.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6437541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2715347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No52c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.953,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No48c26.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.71,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes51c26.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6892761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d0…69c9backed Yes43c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3510551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7517350.9%88 W · 85 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No57c23.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.312,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No59c20.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8327169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d17…32d8backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9813655.1%75 W · 61 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.