Us Politics · resolved market
Judge Boasberg holds Trump administration in contempt of court before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba6f1572f55f01081ff02e09b7246e4bce1ab1afa65991489d4747ad6cce6c72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 40c | 1,187$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.67 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 31c | 539.21$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.7 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 78c | 386.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 56c | 372.69$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 50c | 347.31$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 266.66$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 64c | 240$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 35c | 230.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.96 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 225.48$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51ac…087abacked No | 20c | 162.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 77.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 31c | 63.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 52c | 27.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 63c | 24.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…e79ebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab09…a67abacked Yes | 67c | 18.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 71c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.