Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb5178584f8c66ce75f6a074e3c184ef891d8edd68db71a2bc805fd162549262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 779.44$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.42 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 57c | 718.28$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.28 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 53c | 683.13$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 39c | 370.69$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 47c | 339.25$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.38 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 331.83$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 48c | 252$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.12 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 39c | 225$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 194.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 61c | 177.03$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 173$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 155.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 59c | 139.21$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 53c | 139$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 64c | 129.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 124$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 52c | 113$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 72c | 103.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 48c | 92.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 89.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 74.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 59c | 71.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 70.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 69.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 52.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 36c | 50.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 35c | 50.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 48.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 40c | 47.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 46.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 55c | 45.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…4ca6backed Yes | 33c | 44.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 61c | 44.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 41.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 43c | 40.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 38.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 38.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 32.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 58c | 31.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 29.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 59c | 29.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 29.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 57c | 27.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 26.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…8933backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 24.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 24.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 55c | 23.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 47c | 22.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 21.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…90acbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…4ea8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…693bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.