Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20937a0ff90eeed176e2086034df11c28b1fa5827b28e48e1106cc735b54f1ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 3c | 3,176$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 1,126$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.34 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 51c | 294.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 253.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 237.73$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.86 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 225$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 223.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 45c | 207.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 71c | 198$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 192.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 58c | 184$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 41c | 176.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.02 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 69c | 145.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 110.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 108$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 73c | 107.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 104.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 98.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 97.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 11c | 95.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 95.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 46c | 92.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 31c | 89.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 87.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 32c | 78.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 77.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 73.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 72.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 68.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 61.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 60.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 56.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 21c | 56.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 34c | 54.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 24c | 53.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 51.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 48.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed Yes | 38c | 38.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 63c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 33.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 32.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 29.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 43c | 28.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 60c | 28.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 72c | 26.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 48c | 25.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 64c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 64c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…653fbacked Yes | 65c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 18.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 77c | 17.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 77c | 14.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.