Earnings · resolved market
Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbb65adc6fd52f0fecd996f37e62c3b8a54bde4df6815c949f7d8704cd85ed57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,581$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 2c | 1,036$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked No | 9c | 540.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…1b00backed Yes | 65c | 308.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 34c | 292.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…9fb0backed Yes | 55c | 271.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 65c | 214.09$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 30c | 184.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 27c | 168.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 23c | 163.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 38c | 142.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 65c | 141$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 72c | 138.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 125.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 102.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed Yes | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked No | 30c | 100.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…ef52backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8598…199fbacked Yes | 58c | 85.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 38c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 36c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…fb78backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +368.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…2b66backed No | 32c | 73.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 34c | 65.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…dc66backed Yes | 79c | 63.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…6d2abacked No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 38c | 58.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…17d1backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…57d8backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 37c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b4…7fe1backed No | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…8633backed Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d36…def5backed Yes | 63c | 47.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…f456backed Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389f…0c1dbacked No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 67c | 43.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 35c | 40.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 52c | 35.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked No | 49c | 30.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…2278backed Yes | 75c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…c706backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 69c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.