Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc36eb01bf10988bfd63f74606f21f12d51672ec46877fc8e920ad4004e726db

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: FURIA Esportsof FURIA Esports, NRG
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $77,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,057 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Valorant
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2924…0f31backed FURIA Esports	65c	7,712$5,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,672.42	301	47.2%142 W · 159 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FURIA Esports	65c	4,997$3,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,746.68	931	48.1%448 W · 483 L	-11.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed FURIA Esports	43c	2,467$1,051 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,416.46	260	50%130 W · 130 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked NRG	50c	1,739$863 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$863.01	141	52.5%74 W · 67 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked NRG	17c	1,642$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.55	1,358	39%530 W · 828 L	-57.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-17%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed NRG	29c	1,600$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.92	563	57.9%326 W · 237 L	+36.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed NRG	70c	1,399$981 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981.19	74	56.8%42 W · 32 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed FURIA Esports	37c	1,301$482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$819.91	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked NRG	58c	1,150$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$667	254	44.9%114 W · 140 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked NRG	47c	1,138$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.11	684	58.3%399 W · 285 L	+56.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked NRG	18c	1,056$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.46	312	27.6%86 W · 226 L	-33.9wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FURIA Esports	72c	1,040$748 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$291.84	655	59.4%389 W · 266 L	+50.5wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FURIA Esports	38c	882.67$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$545.65	521	55.5%289 W · 232 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed NRG	36c	858.89$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.16	175	37.7%66 W · 109 L	-14.5wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed NRG	75c	766.51$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.17	180	56.1%101 W · 79 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked NRG	19c	733.39$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.93	533	55.3%295 W · 238 L	+24.0wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed NRG	49c	619.29$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.21	282	47.5%134 W · 148 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed FURIA Esports	37c	494.97$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.31	320	47.8%153 W · 167 L	+8.9wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd69c…4b42backed FURIA Esports	75c	465.53$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.28	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FURIA Esports	79c	439.45$347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.47	137	59.9%82 W · 55 L	-7.6wins	-0.06per pick	65cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed FURIA Esports	21c	433.54$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.02	621	56.4%350 W · 271 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked FURIA Esports	80c	370.57$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.17	182	61%111 W · 71 L	-6.8wins	-0.04per pick	65cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked NRG	43c	368.96$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.18	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed NRG	46c	367.78$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.73	375	45.6%171 W · 204 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed NRG	52c	342.07$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.87	702	51.3%360 W · 342 L	+7.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed NRG	67c	340.9$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.54	430	59.8%257 W · 173 L	+12.4wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed NRG	28c	329.58$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.95	1,490	46.6%695 W · 795 L	-16.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FURIA Esports	74c	308.85$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.4	531	59.1%314 W · 217 L	+41.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e87…b044backed NRG	64c	290.39$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed NRG	60c	244.99$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.38	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0547…563ebacked NRG	33c	240.01$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.37	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked NRG	29c	228.14$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.03	1,417	51.3%727 W · 690 L	+49.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed NRG	43c	224.6$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.58	99	53.5%53 W · 46 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa80a…07f1backed NRG	12c	205.32$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b5…a0d7backed NRG	39c	179.17$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.41	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked FURIA Esports	73c	150.32$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.59	450	33.8%152 W · 298 L	-35.6wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed NRG	59c	146.34$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.34	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked NRG	33c	146.25$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.98	91	48.4%44 W · 47 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed NRG	63c	144.65$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.08	199	45.2%90 W · 109 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x384d…d538backed NRG	62c	143.57$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.1	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.40per pick	60cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed FURIA Esports	41c	141.16$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.28	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeac5…cab7backed FURIA Esports	53c	135.31$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.14	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	+5.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed FURIA Esports	38c	131.99$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.83	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed NRG	24c	120.6$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	575	17.7%102 W · 473 L	-71.7wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4ee8…7406backed NRG	32c	111.56$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.15	225	42.7%96 W · 129 L	-9.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed NRG	32c	110$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed NRG	34c	107$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.11	267	30.7%82 W · 185 L	-13.9wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked FURIA Esports	44c	105.46$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.48	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed NRG	24c	101.38$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.07	231	46.8%108 W · 123 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked NRG	48c	100.92$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.44	211	44.1%93 W · 118 L	-13.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed NRG	64c	99.37$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.6	428	40%171 W · 257 L	-22.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b60…5c4ebacked NRG	33c	95.98$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	103	33%34 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…ba12backed NRG	33c	93.15$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.74	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked NRG	33c	87.06$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.07	88	28.4%25 W · 63 L	-6.1wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e51…71d4backed FURIA Esports	37c	80.62$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.79	96	54.2%52 W · 44 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c1…d9febacked NRG	66c	72.79$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.04	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-3.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x90a7…6929backed NRG	33c	72.71$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…9339backed NRG	46c	66.29$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.44	194	39.2%76 W · 118 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x317f…3a7abacked NRG	29c	66.03$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	147	47.6%70 W · 77 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed NRG	26c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	264	36%95 W · 169 L	-15.8wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked NRG	20c	59.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.01	308	28.2%87 W · 221 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed FURIA Esports	35c	57.66$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.48	67	59.7%40 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa656…fc5ebacked FURIA Esports	43c	56.15$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.01	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+4.5wins	+0.23per pick	47cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed NRG	23c	49.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	305	44.3%135 W · 170 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked NRG	40c	49.15$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.41	196	61.7%121 W · 75 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5f0f…5b90backed FURIA Esports	33c	48$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.16	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+3.4wins	+0.20per pick	33cpaid	+47.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed FURIA Esports	48c	46.51$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.99	664	38.1%253 W · 411 L	-31.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked FURIA Esports	29c	45.89$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.55	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e8a…4e10backed NRG	80c	40.76$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed NRG	63c	40.54$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.69	636	52.7%335 W · 301 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked NRG	28c	39.58$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	407	31.7%129 W · 278 L	-13.1wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FURIA Esports	51c	35.79$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.59	1,376	47.1%648 W · 728 L	+10.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked NRG	49c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	69	24.6%17 W · 52 L	-6.8wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fb6…aa53backed NRG	47c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57d2…ba55backed NRG	64c	30.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed NRG	63c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	181	43.6%79 W · 102 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc161…bd88backed FURIA Esports	68c	21.64$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.92	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c5d…d5dfbacked NRG	64c	21.08$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked NRG	63c	19.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.29	219	51.6%113 W · 106 L	-16.1wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf885…d719backed FURIA Esports	63c	18.62$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.92	40	60%24 W · 16 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e0f…0d76backed NRG	62c	17.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a1…5a4fbacked FURIA Esports	71c	15.4$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.39	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winnerthis page
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)FURIA Esports won
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group OmegaFURIA Esports won
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG - Map 2 WinnerFURIA Esports won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event