TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,440
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,440 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Yes1c10,884$130 inLost-$130.0339265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cc2…eaefbacked Yes45c1,294$581 inLost-$581.0111056.4%62 W · 48 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$10190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d9…6b54backed Yes2c707.68$13 inLost-$12.781553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes19c449.1$84 inLost-$84.323,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf635…05ebbacked Yes5c256.2$14 inLost-$13.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No54c246.41$133 inWon+$113.351,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes45c183.81$83 inLost-$82.5871449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…d224backed Yes47c165.82$77 inLost-$77.443125.8%8 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Yes46c160$73 inLost-$72.895049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Yes45c133$60 inLost-$59.7920146.8%94 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Yes46c124.78$57 inLost-$57.3114649.3%72 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed No57c100$57 inWon+$4395548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No54c92.59$50 inWon+$42.5997049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e85…788bbacked No55c79.79$44 inWon+$35.915651.9%81 W · 75 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed No55c59.99$33 inWon+$2730256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Yes45c52.71$24 inLost-$23.7216450%82 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed No55c45$25 inWon+$20.2929449.7%146 W · 148 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No55c36.81$20 inWon+$16.5692058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4504…e61cbacked Yes45c32.23$15 inLost-$14.51825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.