TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Nuggets (-0.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Nuggets, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,253 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d35…96afbacked Nuggets50c1,368$684 inLost-$683.753138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves50c1,000$500 inWon+$5002,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nuggets47c518.87$244 inLost-$243.871,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbd4…5faabacked Timberwolves53c458.4$243 inWon+$215.455044%22 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Timberwolves50c320.1$160 inWon+$160.0529243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…5a74backed Nuggets53c298.59$158 inLost-$158.257554.7%41 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Timberwolves49c217.47$107 inWon+$110.9487049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa644…026ebacked Timberwolves47c91.77$43 inWon+$48.64520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Timberwolves47c87.14$41 inWon+$46.187451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Timberwolves47c75$35 inWon+$39.7536749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e3…99a1backed Nuggets53c68.78$36 inLost-$36.433941%16 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Timberwolves47c51.34$24 inWon+$27.2150346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Nuggets51c47.58$24 inLost-$24.273354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Nuggets51c47.56$24 inLost-$24.261560%9 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddf2…8bf0backed Timberwolves53c45.84$24 inWon+$21.545947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Timberwolves49c39.57$19 inWon+$20.1820146.8%94 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf693…8064backed Nuggets51c38.04$19 inLost-$19.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Timberwolves47c29.36$14 inWon+$15.5655444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d78…e218backed Nuggets53c27.49$15 inLost-$14.57425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5a…24f1backed Timberwolves47c22.58$11 inWon+$11.975100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.