Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd384a1d8451747df01987fd48994da27cef0325ab396fef5f8dd9496de62b97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 50c | 279.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.5 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 277.96$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 230.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.34 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 218.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 210.26$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 51c | 156.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 34c | 147.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 51c | 131$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 129.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 121.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 120.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 119$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 109.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 103.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 33c | 99.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 91.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 62c | 89.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 88.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 54c | 71.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 54c | 69.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 69.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a1…a768backed Yes | 73c | 69.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 59.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 52c | 57.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 57c | 56.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 55.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 79c | 54.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 51c | 49.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 49c | 49.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 57c | 48.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…36bcbacked No | 50c | 44.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…01bbbacked No | 50c | 44.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 43.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 39.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 65c | 39.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 37.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 33.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 33.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 69c | 31.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 64c | 31.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…442abacked No | 72c | 30.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 42c | 30.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…b884backed Yes | 66c | 28.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x054c…0a1abacked Yes | 74c | 28.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 40c | 28.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked Yes | 47c | 26.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 63c | 25.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 25.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 24.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 67c | 23.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 20.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…926abacked Yes | 50c | 20.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 52c | 20.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…d0e0backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 69c | 19.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 19.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 69c | 19.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 74c | 18.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 75c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.